اثرات شوک ناشی از نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی بر اقتصاد ایران با رویکرد DSGE | ||
| سیاست گذاری اقتصادی | ||
| مقاله 2، دوره 15، شماره 30، مهر 1402، صفحه 38-66 اصل مقاله (688.9 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/epj.2023.20166.2440 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| آرش یاوری فر* 1؛ کریم امامی2؛ تیمور محمدی3 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی-واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2نویسنده مسئول. دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی- واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران | ||
| 3دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف مقاله حاضر بررسی اثرات شوکهای نااطمینانی اقتصادی بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی است. در این مطالعه از مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی در بازه زمانی 1401-1368 استفاده شده است. یکی از نشانههای وجود نااطمینانی در یک نظام اقتصادی، نوسان زیاد متغیرهای اقتصادی است. تعامل بین سیاستهای اقتصادی و متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان همواره در ادبیات اقتصادی مورد توجه بوده است. در این مطالعه اثرات مربوط به شوک نااطمینانی اقتصادی بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بررسی شده است. نتایج به دست آمده از این مطالعه بیانگر این بود که متغیرهای سرمایهگذاری، تولید و مصرف بخش خصوصی در واکنش به شوک نااطمینانی اقتصادی کاهش یافتهاند اما متغیرهای اسمی مانند نرخ ارز، نرخ بهره و نرخ تورم در واکنش به شوک نااطمینانی اقتصادی افزایش یافتهاند. بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده شوک ناشی از نااطمینانی اقتصادی با اثرگذاری بر رفتار کارگزاران اقتصادی در بخش خانوار و بنگاه منجر به ایجاد بیثباتی در بهینهیابی شده و تبعات آن بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی مشاهده شده است. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| نااطمینانی اقتصادی؛ نرخ ارز؛ تولید؛ تورم؛ مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی. (DSGE) | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The effects of the economic policy uncertainty shock on Iran's economy with the DSGE approach | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Arash Yavarifar1؛ Karim Emami2؛ Teymoor Mohammadi3 | ||
| 1PhD Student in Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Islamic Azad University-Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Faculty of Management and Economics, Islamic Azad University - Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 3Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Purpose: Economic uncertainty is a situation in which the future economic environment is difficult to predict, and there is a high degree of risk or unknown issues involved. This can be caused by a variety of factors, such as political instability, financial market volatility, or natural disasters. Economic uncertainty can have a significant impact on macroeconomic variables, such as GDP growth, investment, and consumption. Economic uncertainty can have a number of negative consequences for the economy. It can lead to a decrease in investment, consumption, and economic growth. It can also lead to an increase in inflation and financial market volatility. If there is a political crisis, businesses may become more cautious about making investment decisions, as they are not sure what the future holds. This can lead to a decrease in investment, which can dampen economic growth. Similarly, if there is a financial crisis, consumers may become more cautious about spending money, as they are not sure whether they will lose their jobs or their investments will lose value. This can lead to a decrease in consumption, which can also dampen economic growth. Methodology: As a basis for analysis, the stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model was used in this study. It is a type of economic model that combines elements of both microeconomics and macroeconomics. They are used to simulate the effects of economic shocks on macroeconomic variables. The DSGE model used in this study was based on Iran’s data from 1989 to 2022. The model was then used to simulate the effects of economic uncertainty shocks on a variety of macroeconomic variables, including GDP growth, investment, consumption, the exchange rate, the interest rate, and inflation. Since the central bank in Iran is not independent, it is not possible to model the government and the central bank as two separate parts, but these two should be considered in the same framework. The government tries to balance its expenses in the form of current and construction expenses through the revenues from receiving a lump sum tax from the household, the sale of partnership bonds and the income from the sale of oil. In fact, it is assumed that most of the banks are owned by the government. Results and discussion: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of economic uncertainty shocks on macroeconomic variables. The results indicate that the real variables of the economy such as investment, production, consumption, government spending, and taxes decreased in response to the shock of economic uncertainty. However, nominal variables such as the exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation rate increased in response to that shock. The results of the study suggest that economic uncertainty shocks can lead to instability in the economy. This is because economic uncertainty induces a decrease in economic activity, as businesses and consumers become more cautious about making investment and spending decisions. This can lead to a decrease in GDP growth, employment, and income. In addition, economic uncertainty can increase the inflation by making the demand for goods and services exceed the supply. Conclusions and Policy Implications: The findings of this study suggest that economic uncertainty shocks can have a significant impact on macroeconomic variables. Policymakers should be aware of the potential negative consequences of economic uncertainty shocks and take measures to mitigate their impacts. This could include policies that promote economic stability, such as fiscal stimulus and monetary policy. By understanding the causes and consequences of economic uncertainty, policymakers and businesses can take steps to mitigate its negative impacts and promote economic stability. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| economic uncertainty, exchange rate, production, inflation, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. (DSGE) | ||
| مراجع | ||
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