تحلیل پیشران های کلیدی مؤثر بر تاب آوری اجتماعات محلی شهرستان مشهد در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی با رویکرد آیندهپژوهی | ||
| کاوش های جغرافیایی مناطق بیابانی | ||
| دوره 12، شماره 2، اسفند 1403، صفحه 171-206 اصل مقاله (1.72 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/grd.2025.23655.1667 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مهری جهانسوزی* 1؛ حسین فراهانی2؛ جمشید عینالی2؛ بهروز محمدی یگانه3 | ||
| 1دانش آموخته دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران | ||
| 2گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشکده انسانی، دانشگاه زنجان، ایران | ||
| 3گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشکده انسانی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| تغییرات اقلیمی از مهمترین چالشهای قرن حاضر است که جوامع انسانی، بهویژه روستاها، را با تهدیداتی جدی مواجه کرده است. افزایش دما و تغییر الگوهای بارندگی، مستقیماً بر معیشت و پایداری جوامع محلی تأثیر میگذارند. در این راستا، تقویت تابآوری اجتماعات محلی بهویژه با بهرهگیری از رویکرد آیندهپژوهی، ضرورتی حیاتی محسوب میشود. پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی پیشرانهای کلیدی مؤثر بر افزایش تابآوری روستاهای شهرستان مشهد در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی انجام شده است. این مطالعه از نوع کاربردی-توسعهای و با ماهیت اکتشافی، با استفاده از روش آیندهپژوهی تحلیلی-ساختاری صورت گرفته است. دادهها از طریق مصاحبه نیمهساختاریافته با ۱۹ نفر از خبرگان محلی با استفاده از روش نمونهگیری هدفمند گردآوری و سپس با استفاده از نرمافزار Micmac و روشهای پویش محیطی و تحلیل اثرات متقابل تحلیل شدهاند. براساس نتایج به دست آمده 14عامل کلیدی سرمایه اجتماعی، افزایش دانش، آموزش و آگاهی از طریق توسعه فعالیتهای آموزش، افزایش مشارکت و توسعهی تشکلهای مردمی و نهادهای محلی، افزایش درآمد و پسانداز، تنوعبخشی، حمایت از سرمایهگذاری و توسعه نظامهای حمایتی، توسعه و تقویت زیرساختهای مناسب، رعایت ضوابط فنی، مدیریت بهینه منابع آب و خاک، استفاده از فناوریهای نوین در مدیریت منابع، بسترسازی نهادی، مدیریت، مسئولیتپذیری و پاسخگویی، ارائه تسهیلات و مشوقهای فنی و مالی و تسهیل مقررات و شرایط دریافت و پرداخت وامها، بیشترین نقش و تأثیر مثبت بر وضعیت آینده تابآوری اجتماعات محلی شهرستان مشهد ایفا میکنند. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| تغییرات اقلیمی؛ تاب آوری روستایی؛ آینده نگاری؛ استان خراسان رضوی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Analysis of Key Drivers Affecting the Resilience of Local Communities in Mashhad County against Climate Change Using a Futuristic Approach | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mehri Jahansoozi1؛ Hossein Farahani2؛ Jamshid Einali2؛ Behrooz Mohammadi Yeganeh3 | ||
| 1Department of Geography and Rural Planning, Faculty of Humanities, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran | ||
| 2Department of Geography and Rural Planning, Faculty of Humanities, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran | ||
| 3Department of Geography and Rural Planning, Faculty of Humanities, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| 1. Introduction In recent years, the intensity and frequency of natural disasters worldwide have increased, indicating the high vulnerability of rural areas. A significant portion of these events is influenced by a phenomenon known as climate change. Climate change, recognized as one of the major environmental challenges of the 21st century, is caused by human factors such as greenhouse gas emissions from the use of non-renewable energy sources, as well as natural factors. This phenomenon affects not only the environment but also the social and economic dimensions of human life. Developing countries, due to their greater dependence on sectors like agriculture, are more vulnerable to climate change, while the issue has yet to find a prominent place in their environmental and economic policymaking. This situation has placed pressure on governments globally to take effective measures for adaptation and mitigation of climate change impacts. In this context, the concept of resilience has emerged as a modern approach to dealing with natural disasters and climate change. Strengthening community resilience against climate hazards is a fundamental necessity for reducing vulnerability and increasing recovery capacity. Among the effective approaches in planning and enhancing the resilience of rural settlements is futures studies. This approach, by identifying key drivers and development forces, enables the analysis of uncertainties and outlines possible future scenarios. Over the past two decades, the villages of Mashhad County have faced climate-related crises such as drought and water scarcity, resulting in reduced agricultural production, migration, urban marginalization, and economic instability. The heavy reliance on agriculture has reduced the flexibility of these communities and increased their vulnerability. This study aims to identify the key drivers influencing the resilience of local communities against climate change, emphasizing the importance of futures studies as a tool for improving living conditions, public health, and sustainable development in the region. Accordingly, the research seeks to answer the fundamental question: What are the key drivers that enhance the resilience of local communities in the face of climate change? 2. Research Methodology This study, based on its objective, falls under the category of applied-developmental research. In terms of its nature, it is both analytical and exploratory. The research methodology is grounded in the modern discipline of foresight, employing a structural-analytical approach through a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. With a foresight-oriented perspective, the study seeks to identify the most influential factors contributing to the enhancement of local community resilience against climate change in Mashhad County, and to assess both the extent and nature of their impact. To collect relevant variables and indicators, interviews were conducted with 19 experts well-versed in the subject and professionals responsible for rural development in Mashhad County, including representatives from the Agricultural Jihad Organization, Housing Foundation, village councils, rural water and wastewater authorities, and the Rural Cooperative Organization. A semi-structured questionnaire was then designed and distributed in multiple stages using the environmental scanning method among selected experts—specialists in the research field and rural managers. These experts were asked to identify the most critical resilience factors for local communities in Mashhad County, based on the components evaluated during the assessment phase. The questionnaire was structured as a cross-impact matrix with the following dimensions: 19×19 for governmental support, 19×19 for economic factors, 28×28 for social factors, 9×9 for institutional-managerial factors, 12×12 for physical-infrastructural factors, and 28×28 for environmental factors. Experts were asked to rate the influence of each factor on others using a scale from 0 to 3. The average scores were calculated and entered into the MICMAC software, which generated the final outputs—namely, the key drivers. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by experts, and its reliability was tested using statistical indicators and double data rotation. The results demonstrated a high level of consistency and optimization, indicating strong reliability of the questionnaire and its responses. 3. Results and discussion Using a quantitative foresight method and structural equation modeling (MicMac), the influence and dependency of identified factors were assessed. Based on the matrices related to social, economic, physical-infrastructural, environmental, institutional-managerial, and governmental support indicators, the fill rate ranged from 75% to 100%, indicating strong interconnections among the selected factors. Out of 2,182 evaluable relationships, 333 had a value of zero, meaning the factors neither influenced nor were influenced by each other. 453 relationships had a value of one, indicating weak influence; 750 had a value of two, showing moderately strong influence; and 849 had a value of three, reflecting very strong and frequent interactions among key factors. Additionally, 130 relationships were marked with a “P” value, representing potential and indirect connections (Table 1). Overall, after analyzing each indicator and identifying both direct and indirect key influencing factors, 14 main drivers were selected from among the 115 examined factors as the core elements shaping the future resilience of local communities in the county. 4. Conclusion Identifying the most influential factors affecting resilience is one of the key processes for achieving sustainable development goals. Given that planning for the resilience of local communities depends on various factors and conditions, this study aimed to evaluate and assess the most relevant elements involved in resilience planning for local communities in Mashhad County using an environmental scanning approach based on expert perspectives. The collected data and identified factors were first weighted through expert input using the MicMac structural analysis software, and the interrelationships among these factors were examined. As a result, the most prominent and influential drivers were extracted. Findings revealed that out of 115 evaluated factors, 14 core drivers play the most significant and positive role in shaping the future resilience of local communities in Mashhad County. These drivers stand out in terms of their influence on other factors and, therefore, can be considered the key elements shaping the future outlook of community resilience in Mashhad County by the year 2031. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Climate change, Rural resilience, Foresight, Khorasan Razavi province | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Ackerl, T., Weldemariam, L. F., Nyasimi, M., & Ayanlade, A. (2023). Climate change risk, resilience, and adaptation among rural farmers in East Africa: A literature review. Regional Sustainability, 4(2), 185-193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsus.2023.05.004 Afshari, A. R. (2019). Using the Delphi Method for Futures Studies. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations ManagementPilsen, Czech Republic, July. Akbarian ronizi, S. R. and Ramezanzadeh Lasboyee, M. (2019). Farmers’ resilience against drought with an emphasis on economic dactors and social capital in rural areas: A case study of Roniz in Estahban County. Journal of Rural Research, 10(2), 230-243. https://doi.org/10.22059/jrur.2018.230885.1090 [In Persian] Akhgari, M. and Ghasemian Moghaddam, A. (2023). Prioritization of the effective factors on increasing the economic resilience of rural households against drought (Study case: Dastgerdan section of Tabas county). Village and Space Sustainable Development, 4(2), 112-129. https://doi.org/10.22077/vssd.2023.5530.1121 [In Persian] Anabestani, A., Javanshiri, M., Mahmoudi, H., & Darban Astaneh, M.-R. (2018). Spatial Analysis of Villagers’ Resilience against Environmental Hazards (A Case Study of Central District of Faruj County). Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazards, 5(1), 17-38. http://dx.doi.org/10.29252/jsaeh.5.1.17 Andersson, J. (2018). The Future of the World: Futurology, Futurists, and the Struggle for the Post Cold War Imagination: Oxford University Press. Arasteh, M., Baghban, A. and Baghban, S. (2020). Identification of Key Factors Affecting Urban Resilience with a Foresight Approach (Case Study: Mashhad Metropolis). Physical Social Planning, 7(2), 63-78. https://doi.org/10.30473/psp.2020.7007 [In Persian] Arouri, M., Nguyen, C., & Youssef, A. B. (2015). Natural disasters, household welfare, and resilience: evidence from rural Vietnam. World development, 70, 59-77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.12.017 Bastaminia A, Rezaie M R, Saraie M H. Explaining and Analyzing the Concept of Resiliency and its Indicators and Frameworks in Natural Disasters. Disaster Prev. Manag. Know, 6(1), 32-46. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.23225955.1395.6.1.3.1 [In Persian] Beatley, T., & Newman, P. (2013). Biophilic cities are sustainable, resilient cities. Sustainability, 5, 3328-3345. https://doi.org/10.3390/su5083328 Bibri, S E, (2020). A methodological framework for futures studies: integrating normative backcasting approaches and descriptive case study design for strategic data-driven smart sustainable city planning. Energy Informatics, 3 (1), 1-42. https://doi.org/10.1186/s42162-020-00133-5 Birthal, P. S., & Hazrana, J. (2019). Crop diversification and resilience of agriculture to climatic shocks: Evidence from India. Agricultural Systems, 173, 345-354. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.03.005 Borsekova, K., Nijkamp, P., & Guevara, P. (2018). Urban resilience patterns after an external shock: An exploratory study. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 31, 381-392. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.05.012 Borujeni, M. R., Shafiee-Masuleh, S.-S., & Masouleh, S. R. S. (2019). A Study of the Effects of Lifestyle Changes on Urban Trip Generation with an Approach to Futures Studies: A Case Study of Tehran Region. Journal of Regional and City Planning, 30(3), 173-190. 10.5614/jpwk.2019.30.3.1 https://doi.org/10.5614/jpwk.2019.30.3.1 Bozza, A., Asprone, D., & Manfredi, G. (2015). Developing an integrated framework to quantify resilience of urban systems against disasters. Natural hazards, 78(3), 1729-1748. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1798-3 Busse, H., Jogo, W., Fofanah, M., Tesfay, H., Hadush, M., Kiflom, E., and Schulz, S. (2017). Participatory assessment of factors influencing nutrition and livelihoods in rural ethiopia: Implications for measuring impacts of multisector nutrition programs. Food and Nutrition Bulletin, 38(4), 468–484. https://doi.org/10.1177/0379572117703265 Chuang, W. C., Garmestani, A., Eason, T. N., Spanbauer, T. L., Fried-Petersen, H. B., Roberts, C. P., ... & Allen, C. R. (2018). Enhancing quantitative approaches for assessing community resilience. Journal of Environmental Management, 213, 353-362. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.01.083 Contreras, D., Blaschke, T., & Hodgson, M. E. (2017). Lack of spatial resilience in a recovery process: Case L'Aquila, Italy. Technological forecasting and social change, 121, 76-88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.12.010 Córdoba Vargas, C. A., Hortúa Romero, S., & León Sicard, T. (2020). Key points of resilience to climate change: a necessary debate from agroecological systems. Climate and Development, 12(6), 564-574. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2019.1664376 Davoudi, S., Shaw, K., Haider, L. J., Quinlan, A. E., Peterson, G. D., Wilkinson, C., ... & Davoudi, S. (2012). Resilience: a bridging concept or a dead end? “Reframing” resilience: challenges for planning theory and practice interacting traps: resilience assessment of a pasture management system in Northern Afghanistan urban resilience: what does it mean in planning practice? Resilience as a useful concept for climate change adaptation? The politics of resilience for planning: a cautionary note: edited by Simin Davoudi and Libby Porter. Planning theory & practice, 13(2), 299-333. https://doi.org/10.1080/14649357.2012.677124 Elmqvist, T., Andersson, E., Frantzeskaki, N., McPhearson, T., Olsson, P., Gaffney, O., . .. Folke, C. (2019). Sustainability and resilience for transformation in the urban century. Nature sustainability, 2(4), 267-273. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0250-1 Esmaeilnejad, M., & Pudineh, M. (2017). Evaluation of adaptation to climate change in rural areas south of South Khorasan. Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards, 6(11), 85-100. https://doi.org/10.22111/jneh.2017.3052 [In Persian] Farahani, H., & Jahansoozi, M. (2022). Analysis of rural households' resilience to drought in Iran, case study: Bajestan County. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 82, 103331. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103331 Feldmeyer, D., Wilden, D., Kind, C., Kaiser, T., Goldschmidt, R., Diller, C., & Birkmann, J. (2019). Indicators for monitoring urban climate change resilience and adaptation. Sustainability, 11(10), 2931. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11102931 Figueiredo, L., Honiden, T., & Schumann, A. (2018). Indicators for resilient cities. Folke, C. (2006). Resilience: The emergency of a perspective for social ecological systems analyses, Global Environmental Change, 16 (3), 253‐ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.04.002 Folke, C. (2016). Resilience (republished). Ecology and society, 21(4). http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol21/iss4/art44/ Ghayeni Sabegh, H. (2017). Investigating on farmer’s awareness of climate change and applying its adaptation option adaptability to it (case study: farmers of south Khorasan province, nehbandan county). (BU-Ali Sina University), BU-Ali Sina University. (Graduate Studies Thesis\Dissertation Information) [In Persian] Haegeman, K., Spiesberger, M., & Könnölä, T. (2017). Evaluating foresight in transnational research programming. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 115, 313-326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.07.017 Haegeman, K., Spiesberger, M., & Könnölä, T. (2017). Evaluating foresight in transnational research programming. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 115, 313-326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.07.017 Hajializadeh, , &, Rashidi ebrahimhesari, A. (2020). The Role of Spatial Management Institutions in Area Resiliency with an Emphasis on Climatic Fluctuation Risks (A Case Study of Bonab). Journal Environmental Based Territorial Planning, 13(49), 57-84. Hajian, N., Ghasemi, M., & Mofidi, A. (2019). The role of variety of economic -agronomic and non-agricultural activities on the resilience of farmers’ rural households in the areas exposed to drought (Case study: Chenaran County). Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 7(4), 31-52. https://doi.org/10.22067/geo.v0i0.71994 [In Persian] Havas, A., Schartinger, D., & Weber, M. (2010). The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: recent experiences and future perspectives. Research Evaluation, 19(2), 91-104. https://doi.org/10.3152/095820210X510133 Hertzberg, M., Siddons, A., & Schreuder, H. (2017). Role of greenhouse gases in climate change. Energy & Environment, 28(4), 530-539. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X17706177 Hossein Nia, E., Amar, T. and Pourramzan, E. (2021). Analysis of Social Components Affecting the Resilience of Rural Settlements to Floods (Case Study: Villages in the East of Guilan Province). Journal of Rural Research, 11(4), 646-661. https://doi.org/10.22059/jrur.2020.305926.1529 [In Persian] Hung, H. C., Yang, C. Y., Chien, C. Y., & Liu, Y. C. (2016). Building resilience: Mainstreaming community participation into integrated assessment of resilience to climatic hazards in metropolitan land use management. Land use policy, 50, 48-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.08.029 (2013). Climate Change 2013: The physical science basis: Cambridge University press Cambridge, UK, & New York. Jafari, F., Shayan, H. and Bataghva Sarabi, H. (2020). Analysis of Key Factors Affecting the Promotion of Resilience of Rural Settlements against Environmental Hazards (Case Study: Rural Settlements of Fariman City). Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 9(1), 85-115. https://doi.org/10.22067/geo.v9i1.86846 [In Persian] Jamshidi, A. and Anabestani, A. (2022). Interpretive Structural modeling of factors affecting the development of resilience to climate change (with emphasis on drought) of villagers in west of Urmia Lake. Journal of Arid Regions Geographic Studies, 11(42), 1-22. [In Persian] Javadinejad, S., Dara, R., & Jafary, F. (2021). Analysis and prioritization the effective factors on increasing farmers resilience under climate change and drought. Agricultural research, 10(3), 497-513. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40003-020-00516-w Javadinejad, S., Eslamian, S., Ostad-Ali-Askari, K., Nekooei, M., Azam, N., Talebmorad, H., . . . Mousavi, M. (2019). Relationship between climate change, natural disaster, and resilience in rural and urban societies. Handbook of climate change resilience, 1-25. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71025-9_189-1 Karimi, V., Karami, E., & Keshavarz, M. (2018). Climate change and agriculture: Impacts and adaptive responses in Iran. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 17(1), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(17)61794-5 Keshavarz, M., & Moqadas, R. S. (2021). Assessing rural households' resilience and adaptation strategies to climate variability and change. Journal of Arid Environments, 184, 104323. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2020.104323 Khakifirouz, Z., Niknami, M., Keshavarz, M. and Sabouri, M. S. (2022). Drivers of Farmers’ Resilience to Drought: A Case of Sistan Plain. Iranian Agricultural Extension and Education Journal, 18(1), 161-179. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.20081758.1401.18.1.10.3 [In Persian] Kiani ghalehsard, S., Shahraki, J., Akbari, A. and Sardar shahraki, A. (2019). Investigating the Effects of Climate Change on Food Security of Iran. Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards, 8(22), 19-40. https://doi.org/10.22111/jneh.2018.24170.1380 [In Persian] Lam, L. M., & Kuipers, R. (2019). Resilience and disaster governance: Some insights from the 2015 Nepal earthquake. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 33, 321-331. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.10.017 Leis, N., Rostami, F. and Alibaygi, A. (2021). Strategies to improve farmers' resilience to drought from the Perspective of Experts: A Study in Miandoab County. Geography and Development, 19(65), 77-98. https://doi.org/10.22111/j10.22111.2021.6540 [In Persian] Liu, Z., and Liu, L. (2016). Characteristics and driving factors of rural livelihood transition in the east coastal region of China: A case study of suburban Shanghai. Journal of Rural Studies, 43, 145–158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2015.12.008 Madrigano, J., Chandra, A., Costigan, T., & Acosta, J. D. (2017). Beyond disaster preparedness: Building a resilience-oriented workforce for the future. International journal of environmental research and public health, 14(12), 1563. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14121563 Mahmoodi Momtaz, A., Choobchian, S., and Farhadian, H. (2019). Factors affecting farmers' perception and adaptation behavior in response to climate change in Hamedan province, Iran. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 22(4), 905-917. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.16807073.2020.22.4.16.8 Majnouni Tutakhaneh, A., Heydari Sareban, V. & Mofarrah Bonab, M. (2018). Evaluating the effects of Lake Urmia’s drought on resilience changes in rural settlements. Journal of Research & Rural Planning, 6(4), 67-89. https://doi.org/10.22067/jrrp.v5i4.59430 [In Persian] Manaflouyan, S, Saeideh zar Abadi, Z.S,and Behzadfar, M. (2019). Measuring factors affecting climate resilience (case study: Tabriz city). Quarterly Journal of Human Geography, 12 (1), 509-525. [In Persian] Manaflouyan, S, Saeideh zar Abadi, Z.S,and Behzadfar, M. (2020). Identify and review the current state of climate change and its challenges in ecological resilience. Quarterly of Geography (Regional Planing), 10 (3-1), 447-462. [In Persian] Mao, C., Koide, R., Brem, A., & Akenji, L. (2020). Technology foresight for social good: Social implications of technological innovation by 2050 from a Global Expert Survey. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 153, 119914. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119914 Martinelli, D ., Cimellaro, G.P ., Terzic, V ., Mahin, S., 2014, Analysis of economic resiliency of communities affected by natural disasters:The Bay Area Cace study, Procedia Economics and Finance, Vol. 18, PP. 959 -968. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(14)01023-5 Matyas, D. & Pelling, M. (2015). Positioning resilience for 2015: the role of resistance, incremental adjustment and transformation in disaster risk management policy. Disasters, 39, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12107 Mcentire, D.A. (2014). Disaster response and recovery: strategies and tactics for resilience, John Wiley & Sons, 1-56. McEwen, L., Holmes, A., Quinn, N., & Cobbing, P. (2018). Learning for resilience: Developing community capital through flood action groups in urban flood risk settings with lower social capital. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 27, 329-342. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.10.018 Meerow, S., Newell, J. P., & Stults, M. (2016). Defining urban resilience: A review. Landscape and urban planning, 147, 38-49. Meerow, S., Newell, J. P., & Stults, M. (2016). Defining urban resilience: A review. Landscape and urban planning, 147, 38-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2015.11.011 Mehrolhassani, M. H., Haghdoost, A., Dehnavieh, R., & Pourhosseini, S. S. (2019). Comprehensive conceptual framework for futures studies in health. Medical Journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran, 33, 131. https://doi.org/10.34171/mjiri.33.131 Mekuriaw, S., Mengistu, A., & Tegegne, F. (2019). Livestock Technologies and Grazing Land Management Options for Climate Change Adaption and Mitigation as a Contribution for Food Security in Ethiopia: A Brief Overview. Climate Change-Resilient Agriculture and Agroforestry, 383-396. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75004-0_22 Minani, B., Rurema, D.-G., & Lebailly, P. (2013). Rural resilience and the role of social capital among farmers in Kirundo province, Northern Burundi. APSTRACT: Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, 7(1033-2016-84232), 121-125. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.164817 Mitchell, T., & Harris, K. (2012). Resilience: A risk management approach. ODI background note, 1-7. Moqimi A. (2015). Future epistemology of theoretical approaches to urban planning, architecture and building industry. Intenational Journal of Urban and Rural Management, 14 (38), 75-104. [In Persian] Motaghed, M., Shabanali Fami, H., Asadi, A. and Kalantari, K. (2023). An analysis of farmers' appropriate actions to improve the resilience of small-scale farming units in Hamedan province under climate change conditions. Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards, 12(38), 31-52. https://doi.org/10.22111/jneh.2023.43862.1926 [In Persian] Naeimi, K., and Pourmohammadi, M. (2016). Identifying the key factors influencing the future status of urban slums regarding future study approach: the case study of Sanandaj. Motaleate Shahri, 5(20), 53-64. [In Persian] Nasrnia, F., & Ashktorab, N. (2021). Sustainable livelihood framework-based assessment of drought resilience patterns of rural households of Bakhtegan basin, Iran. Ecological indicators, 128, 107817. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107817 Noori, S. H. and Sepahvand, F. (2016). Analysis of Rural Area Resilience against Earthquake; Case Study: Shirvan District (Boroujerd County). Journal of Rural Research, 7(2), 272-285. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.20087373.1395.7.2.1.4 [In Persian] Norris, F.H., Stevens, S.P., Pfefferbaum, B., Wyche, K.F., & Pfefferbaum, R. L. (2008). Community resilience as a metaphor, theory, set of capacities, and strategy for disaster readiness. American Journal of Community Psychology, 41(1-2), 127-150. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10464-007-9156-6 Pazhuhan, M., Amirzadeh, M., Värnik, R., Pietrzykowski, M., Lopez-Carr, D., & Azadi, H. (2023). The impact of social capital on the resilience of flood-prone communities: The case study of northern Iran. Environmental Development, 48, 100902. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2023.100902 Peng, W., Zheng, H., Robinson, B., Li, C., and Wang, F. (2017). Household livelihood strategy choices, impact factors, and environmental consequences in miyun reservoir watershed. Sustainability, 9(2), 175. Doi: 10.3390/su9020175. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9020175 Peng, X., Heng, X., Li, Q., Li, J., & Yu, K. (2022). From sponge cities to sponge watersheds: Enhancing flood resilience in the Sishui River Basin in Zhengzhou. Water, 14(19), 3084. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14193084 Poudel, S., Funakawa, S., Shinjo, H., & Mishra, B. (2020). Understanding households’ livelihood vulnerability to climate change in the Lamjung district of Nepal. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 22(8), 8159-8182. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-019-00566-3 Ramazani, M. E., & Khodapanah, K. (2021). Future Study of Resilience Improvement of Rural Against Drought Based on Practical Training, A Case Study: Ghale Chaei Watershed Area. Regional Planning, 10(40), 147-162. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.22516735.1399.10.40.10.4 [In Persian] Roknedin eftekhari, A., Moosavi, S. M., Poortaheri, M. and Farajzadeh Asl, M. (2014). Analysis of the role of livelihood diversity to rural household resilience in drought condition: case study of the drought exposed areas of Isfahan province. Journal of Rural Research, 5(3), 639-662. https://doi.org/10.22059/jrur.2014.53186 [In Persian] Rupnik, E., Pierrot-Deseilligny, M., & Delorme, A. (2018). 3D reconstruction from multi-view VHR-satellite images in MicMac. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 139, 201-211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2018.03.016 Sabzehei, M. T., Soleimani, A. and Yousefi, N. (2019). Investigating the effect of social capital on the social resilience of villagers in the ciologyenvironmental risks (with an emphasis on the drought) Case study: villages of sub-strict Badar of Ravansar in 2018. Two Quarterly Journal of Contemporary Sociological Research, 8(14), 283-310. https://doi.org/10.22084/csr.2020.19770.1687 [In Persian] Sadeghloo, T. and Sojasi Qeidari, H. (2014). Ranking of Effective Factors for Farmer Resilience increasing Against of Natural Hazards (With emphasis on drought) Study area: rural farmer in Ijrud province. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 3(2), 129-154. https://doi.org/10.22067/geo.v3i2.29042 [In Persian] Sanaei Moghadam S, Anabestanei A A, Rahmanei B, Azizpour F. (2024). Analysis of the livelihood diversity effects on rural household resilience in the face of climate changeCase study: Suburban villages of Dehdasht city. serd; 13 (48): 101-120. http://dx.doi.org/10.61186/serd.13.2.1 [In Persian] Santiago, M. P., da Cunha, L. I., & Cartea, P. Á. M. (2017). Resilient communities to climate change. Environmental education and movement in transition connection. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 237, 925-930. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2017.02.130 Savari, M. and Abdeshahi, A. (2019). Analysis of the Role of Social Capital to Improve the Resilience of Rural Households in Drought Conditions in the County of Divandarreh. Journal of Rural Research, 10(2), 214-229. https://doi.org/10.22059/jrur.2018.256365.1247 [In Persian] Savari, M. and Shokati Amghani, M. (2019). Adaptation Strategies of Small Scale Farmers in Confronting Droughts in West Azerbaijan Province. Spatial Planning, 9(4), 17-42. https://doi.org/10.22108/sppl.2019.116467.1373 [In Persian] Shammin, M. R., Enamul Haque, A., & Faisal, I. M. (2022). A framework for climate resilient community-based adaptation Climate Change and Community Resilience (pp. 11-30): Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-0680-9_16 Shokri Firoozjah, P. (2017). Spatial Analysis of Resilience of Babol's Regions to Environmental Hazards. Physical Social Planning, 4(2), 27-44. Singh, N. (2022). Developing business risk resilience through risk management infrastructure: The moderating role of big data analytics. Information Systems Management, 39(1), pp34-52. https://doi.org/10.1080/10580530.2020.1833386 Spector, S., Cradock-Henry, N. A., Beaven, S., & Orchiston, C. (2019). Characterising rural resilience in Aotearoa-New Zealand: a systematic review. Regional Environmental Change, 19(2), 543-557. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1418-3 Tapio, S. P. P., & Pouru-Mikkola, M. L. Subject Futures Studies Date 9.5. 2021 Author Kristiina Paju Number of pages 91+ appendices. Tohidimoghadam, A., PourSaeed, A., Bijani, M., & Samani, R. E. (2023). Towards farmers’ livelihood resilience to climate change in Iran: A systematic review. Environmental and Sustainability Indicators, 100266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2023.100266 Toulabinejad, M., Toulabinejad, M. and Tabatabaei, S. A. (2017). Farmers adapt to climate change and its impact on food security of rural households Poldokhtar Township. Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards, 6(13), 67-90. https://doi.org/10.22111/jneh.2017.3148 [In Persian] Yeganeh, A, Shafiei, A, and Bokaie, A. (2022). Analysis of economic and social resilience of gardeners against drought and its effective factors (Case study: Central part of Malekan county). Journal of Geographical Studies of Mountainous Areas, 3(1), 161-178. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.27172325.1401.3.1.9.2 [In Persian] | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 397 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 156 |
||