آیندهپژوهی زیست شهرها، مطالعه موردی: شهر خرمآباد | ||
| شهر آینده، اندیشه بومی | ||
| مقاله 7، دوره 1، شماره 1، مرداد 1404، صفحه 107-122 اصل مقاله (836.67 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی مستقل | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/future.2025.3871 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| حکمت امیری1؛ امیر حسینیان راد* 2؛ مریم بیرانوندزاده3 | ||
| 1گروه شهرسازی، دانشکده فنی مهندسی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران | ||
| 2گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران | ||
| 3گروه جغرافیا، جهاد دانشگاهی لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| با افزایش جمعیت و گسترش زندگی شهری، شهرها با چالشهای متعددی از جمله مشکلات کالبدی، اجتماعی، اقتصادی و زیستمحیطی مواجه شدهاند. شهر خرمآباد نیز به دلیل رشد سریع جمعیت (بیش از ۳۰ درصد در دهههای اخیر)، کمبود خدمات عمومی، آلودگی محیطی و نارساییهای سیستم حملونقل، نیازمند بررسی جامع برای بهبود کیفیت زندگی شهری است. این پژوهش با هدف تحلیل آینده زیست شهری خرمآباد و ارائه سناریوهای عملی برای ارتقای زیست پذیری انجامشده است. این پژوهش از نظر هدف، کاربردی و از نظر روش، ترکیبی (کمی-کیفی) است که رویکرد آیندهپژوهی استفاده کرده است. دادههای موردنیاز از طریق منابع کتابخانهای و نظرات ۳۰ نفر از خبرگان حوزه شهری (اساتید دانشگاه، برنامه ریزان و کارشناسان شهری) جمعآوری شد. ابزار پژوهش پرسشنامه محقق ساخته با پایایی قابلقبول (آلفای کرونباخ ۰.۷۸۰) بود و تحلیل دادهها با نرمافزار MICMAC انجام گرفت. نتایج نشان داد متغیرهای کلیدی مانند احیای کارکرد واحدهای همسایگی، حفاظت از منابع طبیعی و توسعه درونی شهری بیشترین تأثیر را بر آینده زیست شهری خرمآباد دارند. این یافتهها با مبانی نظری توسعه پایدار و حکمروایی خوب شهری همسو هستند. بر اساس یافتهها، سناریوی واقعبینانه برای خرمآباد، حرکت تدریجی به سمت شهری زیست پذیر با تأکید بر مشارکت اجتماعی، توسعه پایدار و بهرهگیری از فناوریهای نوین است. این پژوهش چارچوبی برای برنامهریزی و سیاستگذاری در جهت بهبود کیفیت زندگی شهری ارائه میدهد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| آیندهپژوهی؛ زیست پذیری شهری؛ میک مک و سناریو ویزارد؛ خرمآباد | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Future Studies of Urban Life: A case study of Khorramabad City | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Hekmat Amiri1؛ Amir Hoseinian rad2؛ Maryam Beyranvandzadeh3 | ||
| 1Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Engineering, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran | ||
| 2Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran | ||
| 3Department of Geography, Acecr of lorestan baranch, Khorramabad, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| A B S T R A C T With increasing population and the expansion of urban life, cities have encountered numerous challenges, including physical, social, economic, and environmental issues. Khorramabad City, too, due to rapid population growth (over 30% in recent decades), a scarcity of public services, environmental pollution, and deficiencies in its transportation system, necessitates a comprehensive examination to enhance its urban quality of life. This research was conducted with the aim of analyzing the future of urban livability in Khorramabad and proposing practical scenarios for its improvement. From an objective standpoint, this research is applied, and methodologically, it adopts a mixed-methods (quantitative-qualitative) approach, utilizing a foresight perspective. The requisite data were collected through extensive library resources and the expert opinions of 30 urban specialists (university professors, urban planners, and urban experts). The research instrument was a researcher-designed questionnaire with acceptable reliability (Cronbach's Alpha of 0.780), and data analysis was performed using MICMAC software.The results unequivocally demonstrated that key variables such as the revitalization of neighborhood unit functions, the conservation of natural resources, and endogenous urban development exert the most significant impact on the future urban livability of Khorramabad. These findings are congruent with the theoretical foundations of sustainable development and good urban governance. Based on these findings, a realistic scenario for Khorramabad involves a gradual progression towards a more livable city, emphasizing social participation, sustainable development, and the judicious integration of novel technologies. This research, therefore, provides a robust framework for urban planning and policymaking aimed at improving the urban quality of life. Extended Abstract Introduction Khorramabad, the capital city of Lorestan province, has experienced unprecedented population growth—exceeding 30% over the past three decades—resulting in multifaceted challenges spanning the physical, social, economic, and environmental dimensions. Rapid urban expansion without commensurate infrastructure development has caused deficits in public services, environmental pollution, transportation system inefficiencies, and degradation of natural resources. These conditions have adversely impacted residents’ quality of life and highlighted the urgent need to reassess urban development patterns. This study focuses on urban livability as a pivotal analytical framework to examine Khorramabad’s future trajectory and propose pragmatic scenarios for its transformation into a sustainable and human-centered city. Livability here is conceptualized as a multidimensional construct encompassing economic, social, environmental, and cultural spheres, grounded in theories of sustainable development, good urban governance, and urban ecosystem management. Methodology This research is designed as an applied study with a mixed-methods approach (qualitative-quantitative) grounded in futures studies methodology. Data collection and analysis were conducted in three phases: the qualitative phase involved systematically reviewing 32 scholarly articles and 15 authoritative books to extract key variables, complemented by semi-structured interviews with 10 urban experts. In the quantitative phase, a researcher-developed questionnaire based on a five-point Likert scale (ranging from "no impact" to "highly impactful") was administered, demonstrating acceptable reliability with a Cronbach’s alpha of 0.780. The statistical population comprised 30 experts—including 15 university professors, 10 urban managers, and 5 environmental activists—selected through snowball sampling. The inclusion criterion required a minimum of five years of specialized experience in the urban domain. For data analysis, MICMAC software was utilized to construct a 12×12 cross-impact matrix to identify direct and indirect inter-variable relationships. Validation of the results was performed through confirmatory factor analysis and a modified Delphi method. Results and discussion The MICMAC analysis identified three key variables as the primary drivers of Khorramabad’s urban livability. First, the revival of neighborhood unit functions, with a direct impact score of 971, emphasizes strengthening the role of local communities as cores of social interaction, grounded in the theories of Jane Jacobs (1961) and Patrick Geddes. Second, the conservation of natural resources, scored at 890, highlights the integration of natural elements such as forests and wetlands into the urban fabric, in line with the principles of biophilic cities (Beatley, 2017). Third, internal development and urban synergy, also scored 890, focus on optimizing existing spaces through vertical development, consistent with the visions of Peter Hall (2020) and Edward Glaeser (2013). The cross-impact map reveals that dependent variables like good urban governance and urban security exhibit the highest dependence on other variables, underscoring the necessity of participatory approaches in urban management. Moreover, the indirect effects of “citizens’ perceived security” and “internal development” on quality of life improvement corroborate environmental psychology theories. The dispersion pattern, with 91.66% of the matrix cells filled, reflects a complex network of causal relationships among variables. Ultimately, the realistic scenario for Khorramabad advocates a gradual transition towards a livable city, centered on three main pillars: sustainable transportation development (TOD) aiming to reduce reliance on private vehicles; enhancement of public spaces emphasizing urban legibility (Lynch, 1960) and human-centered design (Gehl, 2013); and integration of sustainability principles in urban planning, including natural resource conservation and pollution reduction. Conclusion This study examines the future of urban livability in Khorramabad by employing a mixed-methods approach and using MICMAC software alongside expert opinions to analyze the key variables influencing its urban environment. The findings decisively indicate that the variables exerting the greatest impact on Khorramabad’s urban future are neighborhood revitalization, natural resource conservation, and urban infill development. These results align deeply with established theoretical frameworks of sustainable urban development and good urban governance. In particular, the paramount importance of neighborhood revitalization (with a direct impact score of 971) underscores the critical role of urban designers in enhancing urban quality of life and fostering social belonging, consistent with Jane Jacobs’ emphasis on neighborhood diversity and vitality (1961), as well as Patrick Geddes’ theories on socially participatory urban planning. The significant influence of natural resource and capital conservation (score of 890) directly supports the Brundtland Commission’s principles of sustainable development and the concept of biophilic cities, highlighting the necessity of balancing urban growth with environmental preservation for future generations. Additionally, the substantial impact of infill development (score of 890) reinforces the theories of Peter Hall and Edward Glaeser advocating vertical development to optimize land use, reduce urban sprawl, and protect natural and agricultural lands. The study also revealed that “good urban governance” and “urban security” are highly dependent variables, accentuating the essential role of integrated and participatory approaches in urban management, echoing the principles of transparency, citizen engagement, and accountability characteristic of good governance. Furthermore, the indirect effects of “citizens’ perceived security” and “internal and inter-urban development” foreground the psychological and human-centric dimensions of urban design, confirming that urban spaces profoundly influence residents' well-being and satisfaction. This research provides a robust framework to guide urban planning and policy-making in Khorramabad, directing efforts toward a more sustainable and human-centered city. The findings suggest that a realistic scenario for Khorramabad entails gradual progress toward enhanced livability through sustainable social participation, integrated sustainable development strategies, and the prudent incorporation of emerging technologies. Future research could extend this work via longitudinal studies tracking the impacts of policies implemented based on these findings. Additionally, comparative studies with other cities facing similar challenges could yield valuable insights regarding adaptive strategies for improving urban livability. Investigating specific socio-economic and cultural barriers to implementing these key drivers would also offer a more nuanced understanding of effective urban interventions. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Futures Studies, Urban Liveability, MICMAC, Scenario Wizard, Khorramabad | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 281 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 136 |
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