تاثیر سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم برجریان خروجی رودخانه کر با استفاده از مدل SWAT | ||
| کاوش های جغرافیایی مناطق بیابانی | ||
| دوره 13، شماره 1، اردیبهشت 1404، صفحه 37-52 اصل مقاله (1.22 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/grd.2025.21652.1619 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| فاطمه بومه1؛ محمد حسین مختاری* 2؛ علی طالبی3؛ مسعود گودرزی4 | ||
| 1مدیریت مناطق خشک و بیابانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و کویر شناسی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران | ||
| 2مدیریت مناطق خشک و بیابانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و کویرشناسی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران | ||
| 3مرتع و آبخیزداری، منابع طبیعی و کویرشناسی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران | ||
| 4پژوهشکده حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| پهنه گسترده‌ای از کشور ایران دارای اقلیم گرم و خشک است. بنابراین لزوم تغییرات در آینده تحت شرایط تغییر اقلیم وضعیت این نواحی، اهمیت دارد. در این پژوهش جهت بررسی تاثیر سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم برجریان خروجی رودخانه کر از مدل های SWAT و LARS- WG V7 استفاده شد برای این منظور با استفاده مدل SWAT جریان خروجی از حوضه آبریز رودخانه کر برای دوره پایه(1988 تا 2018) محاسبه گردید و سپس با مدل ریزمقیاس نمایی LARS- WG V7، بارش و دمای آینده مدل تغییراقلیم HadGEM3-GC31-LL تحت سناریو های انتشار SSP2-4.5 و SSP5-8.5 برای سالهای 2031 تا 2090 برآورد گردید و اثر تغییرات اقلیم بر روی جریان خروجی این حوضه مورد ارزیابی شد. نتایج نشان داد که در دوره 2031 تا 2090، بیشترین افزایش بارش، دما و دبی در ایستگاه‌های چمریز و درودزن عمدتاً در فصول پاییز و زمستان رخ داده است. افزایش بارش در این فصول با رشد چشمگیر دبی هم‌راستا و بیانگر تقویت الگوهای بارندگی فصلی در آینده است. همچنین، روند افزایشی دمای حداقل و حداکثر ماهانه در تمامی ماه‌ها دیده میشود که در پاییز و زمستان شدت بیشتری دارد. نتایج نشان‌دهنده تغییرات محسوس اقلیمی با تمرکز بر نیمه سرد سال و اهمیت مدیریت منابع آب در این فصول است. تغییر در پارامترهای هواشناسی منجر به تغییر در رژیم هیدرولوژیکی مانند رواناب حوضه خواهد شد. افزایش میزان بارش و دما احتمالاً در آینده باعث سیل در منطقه میشود در نتیجه اتخاذ راهکارهایی در جهت نفوذ باران به منابع آب‌زیرزمینی و کاهش خطرات ناشی از وقوع سیلاب اجتناب ناپذیر است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| ایستگاه هیدرومتری چمریز؛ تغییراقلیم؛ رودخانه کر؛ مدل نیمه توزیعی SWAT | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Impacts of climate change scenarios on the Kor River stream flow using SWATT model | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| fatemeh boomeh1؛ Mohammad Hossein Mokhtari2؛ Ali Talebi3؛ Masoud Goodarzi4 | ||
| 1Arid Land and Desert Management، Natural Resources & Desert Studies Yazd University. Yazd. Iran | ||
| 2Arid Land and Desert Management، Natural Resources & Desert Studies Yazd University. Yazd. Iran | ||
| 3Rangeland and Watershed، Natural Resources & Desert Studies, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran. | ||
| 4Department of drought and climate change, SCWMRI, AREEO, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Extended Abstract 1. Introduction Changes in weather patterns in comparison to expected long term observations, defines as climate change. This phenomenon affects water resources, precipitation and runoff amount and frequency. According to new approach CMIP6, world temperature increases about 1.1 °C till 2050s in comparison to 1850-1990. Economic dependence to agriculture and natural resources in developing countries causes increasing consequences of climate changes to residents. Hence, climate change and related droughts are the biggest challenges in Iran agricultural activities. Therefore, recent studies investigate the effects of climate change on water resources and runoff at the basin scale. In this study, climate change effects on discharge of Kor river basin investigated by SWAT and LARS-WG V7 models. 2. Research Methodology SWAT model applies to simulate runoff, sediment, plant growth, nutrients in soil, contamination transfer, etc. To do this, model divides basin into several sub-basins and each of them to several HRUs which are different in terms of soil characteristics, slope and land use. Since the SWAT model is semi-distributed, it is necessary to calibrate primary results to minimize differences of observed and simulated data. On the other hand, climate change effect is not predictable. Application of climate scenarios is an alternative solution. The most common models are GCM models. LARS-WG method uses to micro-scale GCM data. 3. Results In this study, climate change effects on Kor river basin investigated using SWAT and LARS_WG models. Land use map extracted from Landsat 7 satellite imagery. Chamriz and Dehkadeh-Sefid were chosen as hydrometric stations. Statistical data considered from 1988 to 2018, divided into three parts include warm-up, calibration and validation. In dehkadeh-Sefid, Nash-Sutcliffe and R2 coefficients for calibration was 0.65 and 0.69 respectively while for validation was 0.54 and 0.65 respectively. In Chamriz, Nash-Sutcliffe and R2 coefficients was 0.65 and 0.73 for calibration and 0.78 and 0.79 for validation respectively. In this study, CMIP6 models used to predict temperature and precipitation. Precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature data match with HadGEM3-GC31-LL model very well. Average minimum and maximum temperature of all months increases under SSP2-4.5 and SSO5-8.5 scenarios in the future. Also, precipitation under this scenarios increases in September to December varied in different stations. Monthly discharge in hydrometric stations shows that the most increase will occur in October which is explainable due to increase in nearby stations precipitation. 4. Conclusion Evaluating the impact of climate change on regional and watershed scales regarding water resources management is important for implementing policies to achieve sustainable development. According to this study, it is necessary to adopt strategies to infiltrate rainfall, increase water resources volume and minimize dangers of flood includes increase natural coverage by planting fast-growing trees. Abstract A wide area of Iran has arid and warm climate. Hence, it is important to prospect the condition affected by the climate change in future. In this study, climate change effects on Kor river basin evaluated by SWAT and LARS-WG V7 climate model. For this purpose, at first stream flow of Kor river estimated by SWAT model during baseline. Then, by using LARS-WG V7 model, precipitation and temperature in future estimated. At last, effect of climate change on Kor river stream flow evaluated. According to results, the mean minimum and maximum monthly temperature under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 increased in all months in future which increased more in October, as well as changes in monthly flow in Dehkadeh-Sefid and Cham-Riz stations due to increase in precipitation in this month rather than baseline. Based on findings, increase in precipitation will happen. So, it is inevitable to choose approaches in order to make rain water percolate, groundwater resources increase and lower the risk of increasing in runoff and subsequently flood occurrence. Key Words: Cham-Riz station, Climate change, Kor river, SWAT. Abstract A wide area of Iran has arid and warm climate. Hence, it is important to prospect the condition affected by the climate change in future. In this study, climate change effects on Kor river basin evaluated by SWAT and LARS-WG V7 climate model. For this purpose, at first stream flow of Kor river estimated by SWAT model during baseline. Then, by using LARS-WG V7 model, precipitation and temperature in future estimated. At last, effect of climate change on Kor river stream flow evaluated. According to results, the mean minimum and maximum monthly temperature under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 increased in all months in future which increased more in October, as well as changes in monthly flow in Dehkadeh-Sefid and Cham-Riz stations due to increase in precipitation in this month rather than baseline. Based on findings, increase in precipitation will happen. So, it is inevitable to choose approaches in order to make rain water percolate, groundwater resources increase and lower the risk of increasing in runoff and subsequently flood occurrence. Key Words: Cham-Riz station, Climate change, Kor river, SWAT. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Cham-Riz station, Climate change, Kor river, SWAT | ||
| مراجع | ||
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