تحلیل ساختاری بازآفرینی بافتهای فرسوده کلانشهر تهران با بهرهگیری از رویکرد آیندهپژوهی | ||
| شهر آینده، اندیشه بومی | ||
| مقاله 1، دوره 1، شماره 1، مرداد 1404، صفحه 1-20 اصل مقاله (1.42 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی مستقل | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/future.2025.3769 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| فرید واحدی یگانه؛ ابوالفضل مشکینی* | ||
| گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| یکی از مشکلات عمده شهرها وجود بافتهای فرسوده در آنهاست که خود سرآغاز بسیاری از مشکلات و معضلات میباشد، بهگونهای که امروزه این بافتها از هر لحاظ بهخصوص ساختاری و عملکردی دچار کمبودهایی شده و جوابگوی نیاز ساکنین خود نمیباشند. در راستای کـاهش مشـکلات بافتهای فرسوده شهری موضوع ساماندهی از طریق رویکردهای متفاوتی چون بازسازی، باززندهسازی، نوسازی، توسعه مجدد و درنهایت بازآفرینی مطرحشده است. این مطالعه با هدف تحقق و توسعه بازآفرینی بافتهای فرسوده در کلانشهر تهران با رویکرد آیندهپژوهی انجام پذیرفت. در پژوهش حاضر، از طریق غربالگری 24 عامل بهعنوان مهمترین عوامل تأثیرگذار بر بازآفرینی بافتهای فرسوده انتخاب شدند. دادههای حاصل، از طریق نرمافزار MICMAC تجزیهوتحلیل گردید و تأثیرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم عاملها بر بازآفرینی بافتهای فرسوده با ارزشهای عددی متفاوتی مشخص گردید. دو عامل مهم «بسترها و زیرساختهای بازآفرینی» و «مدیریت شهری» سناریوهای قابلقبولی برای آینده بازآفرینی ارائه دادند. در سناریوی اول ) مریخ (هیچ بستر و زیرساختی و همچنین متخصص و مدیری نیست و هیچ قصدی نیز برای جذب آنها وجود ندارد. سناریوی دوم (کشتی بدون کاپیتان) بر این اساس است که بستر و زیرساخت وجود دارد، اما مدیریتی متخصص و آگاه برای پیشبرد اهداف وجود ندارد. در سناریوی سوم (نایک)، کمیت و کیفیت ابزاری و انسانی بهخوبی کار میکنند و آینده بسیار امیدوارکننده و ایدهآل خواهد بود و در سناریوی چهارم (یانوس) مدیران متخصص به کار گرفته میشوند اما بستر و زیرساختی برای پیشبرد اهداف وجود ندارد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| بازآفرینی شهری؛ بافتهای فرسوده؛ برنامهریزی سناریو-مبنا؛ تحلیل اثرات متقاطع؛ مطالعات آیندهپژوهی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Structural Analysis of Regeneration of Worn-out Tissues in Tehran Metropolis Using the Future Research Approach | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Farid Vahedi Yeganeh؛ Abolfazl Meshkini | ||
| Department of Human Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| A B S T R A C T One of the major problems of cities is the existence of dilapidated urban structures, which is the beginning of many problems and dilemmas, so that today these structures are lacking in every aspect, especially structural and functional, and do not meet the needs of their residents. In order to reduce the problems of dilapidated urban structures, the issue of organizing them through different approaches such as reconstruction, revitalization, renovation, redevelopment, and ultimately regeneration has been raised. This study was conducted with the aim of realizing and developing the regeneration of dilapidated structures in the metropolis of Tehran with a futures research approach. In the present study, 24 factors were selected through screening as the most important factors affecting the regeneration of dilapidated structures. The resulting data were analyzed through MICMAC software, and the direct and indirect effects of the factors on the regeneration of dilapidated structures were determined with different numerical values. Two important factors, "regeneration beds and infrastructure" and "urban management", provided acceptable scenarios for the future of regeneration. The results of the study showed that the status of the regeneration system of worn-out urban textures in Tehran is unstable. It was also determined that the type of ownership, urban facilities and infrastructure, income and capital, land and housing prices, and employment and unemployment rates, respectively, with numerical values of "568, 542, 529, 515, and 489", will have the greatest impact on the regeneration of worn-out urban textures in Tehran. Finally, four scenarios were presented. Extended Abstract Introduction Undoubtedly, "change" is a necessity for the continuity and evolution of human life and leaves its mark in time and space with different rates and accelerations. In recent decades, the rapid growth of urbanization, the excessive development and expansion of cities, have brought with them bottlenecks, problems and complexities. One of the consequences of this phenomenon has been the intensification of the rhythm of "spatial-physical change" of cities in general and urban centers, old and worn-out textures and, in particular, the central parts of cities, which has often caused a decline in social status, disorder in spatial-physical organization, economic decline and functional inefficiency in these areas. These problems become more pronounced when, despite the presentation of urban development plans on paper to solve this problem, the plans presented in practice are not as successful as they are on paper and in many cases have caused them to deteriorate further. Among the main reasons for the inefficiency of these plans can be considered the existence of inadequacies in laws and regulations and their confrontation with property rights in countries such as Iran (where this right is legally recognized). "Dilapidated urban textures" are also one of the undesirable results of urbanization in the contemporary world, which has been formed due to rapid industrialization and regional inequalities. The implementation of measures in a scattered and sectional manner in the country, which is the result of a purely economic and functional view of urban officials and managers, as well as the large extent of dilapidated textures and the lack of clear strategies and a scientific and comprehensive future-oriented attitude in the field of planning, management and reduction of such textures; have caused dilapidated urban textures to face problems of physical disorder, urban poverty, security and safety of residents, lack of services, reduced social status and decline in economic value. It is essential to improve the economic situation and restore the worn-out textures to the economic life of the city, to make them susceptible to accepting new capital and diversifying financial instruments in the capital market, and to place them in the focus of attention of decision-makers, decision-makers, and urban managers. Considering the above, the present study intends to identify the factors affecting the sustainable regeneration of worn-out textures in the metropolis of Tehran, and to use future research and scenario planning to address the trends affecting the future of the regeneration of worn-out textures, analyze the effects of these factors, and categorize them. The objectives of the study include the following: - Identifying the factors affecting the regeneration of worn-out textures in the metropolis of Tehran. - Developing target scenarios. Methodology The approach of this research is exploratory due to the recognition and identification of the drivers and factors affecting the regeneration of worn-out urban areas in the metropolis of Tehran. The statistical population of the research, considering this field (regeneration), includes urban managers and officials, experts and activists (30 people were selected for questioning using a purposive sampling method). In this research, the structural analysis method using MICMAC software has been used to identify the key factors affecting the feasibility and development of the regeneration of worn-out urban areas. - Extracting key drivers and drivers affecting the regeneration of worn-out urban areas in Tehran metropolis using a literature review and interviews with experts and specialists in this field. - Determining the final factors affecting scenario development using the interaction matrix. Results and discussion First, 56 factors affecting the regeneration of worn-out textures were identified for analysis through a documentary study and interviews with experts in the field. After completing the questionnaires, the significance level of the data was calculated using statistical assumptions through SPSS software. Finally, after the screening stage, 24 factors with a significance level greater than 0/5 were identified as the final factors. Among the identified factors, seven key factors affecting the future feasibility and development of policies for the regeneration of dilapidated urban areas in the Tehran metropolis were identified: land and housing prices, income and capital levels, employment and unemployment rates, bank facilities, poverty alleviation budgets and credits, public and private investments, and construction costs. Finally, by considering these seven key factors, scenarios for the future of the regeneration of dilapidated urban areas were developed. Conclusion According to the opinions of experts and after coordination and consultation with experts, it was determined that the key factors affecting the regeneration of worn-out textures are substrates and infrastructures and efficient urban management. Therefore, other vital factors are also affected by the changing state of these two drivers. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Farid Vahedi Yeganeh: Analysis, methodology, data collection, writing and editing Abolfazl Meshkini: Supervision, conceptualization, methodology, writing, and final editing Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Futures Studies, Cross-Effect Analysis, Urban Regeneration, Worn-Out Textures, Scenario-Based Planning | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 658 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 293 |
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