ارزیابی میزان و چگونگی اثرات فناوریهای نوین بر شهرهای هوشمند آینده | ||
| شهر آینده، اندیشه بومی | ||
| مقاله 12، دوره 1، شماره 1، مرداد 1404، صفحه 197-220 اصل مقاله (1.16 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی مستقل | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/future.2025.3761 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| حمید محمدی* ؛ محدثه بشیرمشهدی | ||
| گروه برنامه ریزی توسعه و پیشرفت، مرکز پژوهش های توسعه و آینده نگری، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| جهان امروز با چالشهای پیچیدهای در زمینههای اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیستمحیطی مواجه است که پاسخ به آنها مستلزم طراحی الگوهای نوین توسعه شهری است. شهرهای آینده باید به نحوی برنامهریزی شوند که همگام با تحولات فناورانه، نیازهای چندبعدی شهروندان را بهصورت پایدار تأمین کنند. فرایند شکلگیری شهرها به مجموعهای از عوامل درهمتنیده نظیر سیاست، فرهنگ، اقتصاد، جغرافیا و فناوری بستگی دارد. این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی فناوریهای نوینی که بیشترین تأثیر را بر آینده شهرهای هوشمند دارند، انجام شد. ابتدا با مطالعات کتابخانهای و مصاحبههای تخصصی، ۲۵ فناوری نوین شناسایی گردید. سپس با استفاده از تکنیک دلفی و طراحی پرسشنامه، تأثیر این فناوریها بر شش محرک اصلی شهر هوشمند شامل: حکمرانی هوشمند، حملونقل هوشمند، اقتصاد هوشمند، جامعه هوشمند، محیطزیست هوشمند و زیربنای هوشمند موردبررسی قرار گرفت. نمونهگیری به روش غیر تصادفی هدفمند (قضاوتی) انجام شد و پس از تکمیل ۲۵ پرسشنامه، به اشباع نظری دستیافتیم. یافتهها نشان دادند که هفت فناوری شامل: هوش مصنوعی، اینترنت نسل پنجم و استارلینک، اینترنت اشیاء، کلان داده (Big Data)، بلاک چین، رایانش ابری و دوقلوهای دیجیتال، بیشترین تأثیر را بر محرکهای ششگانه دارند. این فناوریها با نفوذ در لایههای مختلف مدیریت و زندگی شهری، بستری برای ارتقاء بهرهوری، تابآوری، پایداری و جهانیشدن شهرها فراهم میسازند. نتایج این پژوهش میتواند مبنای برنامهریزی راهبردی برای هوشمند سازی شهرها در آیندهای نزدیک قرار گیرد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| فناوریهای نوین؛ شهر آینده؛ شهر هوشمند؛ ارزیابی اثرات | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Evaluation the Ratio and Quality of Effects of New Technologies on Futures Smart Cities | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Hamid Mohammadi؛ Mohadeseh Bashir Mashhadi | ||
| Center for Development and Foresight Research, Planning and Budget Organization,Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| A B S T R A C T In the face of rapid urbanization and growing infrastructure demands, cities around the world are turning to advanced technologies to build smarter, more sustainable urban environments. The objective of this research is to evaluate the extent and quality of the impact of emerging technologies on the development of future smart cities. The study focuses on their influence across six key drivers: smart mobility, smart economy, smart governance, smart environment, smart living, and smart people. The aim is to identify the most transformative technologies supporting urban sustainability and quality of life. This study employs a descriptive-analytical approach based on qualitative and quantitative methods. Tools include a structured literature review, expert interviews, and a Delphi-based questionnaire. Twenty-five experts from fields such as urban planning, digital economy, IT, and renewable energy participated in evaluating 25 emerging technologies using a five-point Likert scale. Data analysis helped identify the seven technologies with the highest overall impact. Findings show that Artificial Intelligence(AI), Internet of Things (IoT), Big Data, Blockchain, Cloud Computing, Digital Twins, and 5G/6G Satellite Internet are the most influential. These technologies enable real-time decisions, interconnectivity, data integration, and efficient service delivery. They provide solutions to urban issues like congestion, pollution, inefficiency, and lack of transparency. In conclusion, integrating these technologies into urban systems can significantly enhance city performance and sustainability. Successful implementation depends on strong digital infrastructure, supportive policies, inclusive planning, and citizen engagement. Smart cities of the future will require not just technological advancement, but coordinated efforts to ensure equitable and lasting impact. Extended Abstract Introduction In the face of rapid urbanization and increasing complexities in urban management, cities around the world are turning to smart technologies to enhance efficiency, sustainability, and quality of life. The emergence of smart cities represents a paradigm shift from traditional urban development towards a technology-enabled, data-driven approach to urban planning. However, while the term "smart city" is widely used, the exact technologies driving this transition and their relative impacts remain insufficiently understood. This study addresses a critical research gap by evaluating the ratio and quality of the effects of emerging technologies on six key drivers of future smart cities: smart governance, smart mobility, smart economy, smart people, smart environment, and smart living. The main objectives are to identify the most influential new technologies, assess their qualitative and quantitative impacts, and provide strategic recommendations for urban policymakers and planners. The study poses the following core questions: Which emerging technologies have the most significant impact on smart city development? How do these technologies affect different urban domains and the quality of urban life? Methodology The research methodology is descriptive-analytical, combining qualitative and quantitative approaches. Initially, a comprehensive literature review and expert interviews led to the identification of 25 emerging technologies relevant to smart cities. A structured questionnaire was then developed based on the Delphi technique and distributed to 25 experts in urban planning, information technology, digital economy, and related fields. Respondents evaluated the impact of each technology across the six smart city drivers using a five-point Likert scale. The sample was selected through purposive (judgmental) non-probability sampling to ensure participation from subject matter experts. Data analysis was performed using descriptive statistics and inferential methods to determine the most impactful technologies. Content validity of the questionnaire was verified through expert consultation, and theoretical saturation was achieved after analyzing all responses. Results and discussion Findings reveal that seven technologies stand out for their significant influence across all six drivers of smart cities: Artificial Intelligence (AI) Internet of Things (IoT) Big Data Blockchain Cloud Computing Digital Twins 5G/6G and Satellite Internet (e.g., Starlink) AI demonstrated a particularly high impact, with over 95% influence on smart people, smart governance, smart mobility, and smart living. Its capabilities in pattern recognition, data analysis, and decision-making support a wide array of urban applications such as traffic optimization, waste management, and energy efficiency. IoT, described metaphorically as the “nervous system” of the smart city, was highlighted for its role in real-time data collection and seamless connectivity between urban infrastructure and services. Big Data analytics, often used in tandem with IoT and AI, facilitates predictive modeling and evidence-based decision-making in urban planning, public health, and resource management. Cloud computing supports scalability and accessibility of services, while digital twins enable simulation of urban dynamics for planning, crisis management, and infrastructure optimization. The study also underscores the transformative role of blockchain in secure data transactions, transparent governance, and the implementation of smart contracts in municipal services. Finally, 5G/6G and satellite internet technologies provide the necessary bandwidth and connectivity for real-time communication, smart grids, and remote services. Each of these technologies was evaluated not only in isolation but also in terms of their synergistic effects when integrated. Results showed that "smart living" is the domain most influenced by these technologies (95.2%), followed by "smart economy" (94.8%), and "smart people" (93.5%). Moreover, the findings suggest that while individual technologies offer strong benefits, the greatest gains come from their integration. For instance, combining AI and IoT enables intelligent traffic systems, while linking blockchain and digital twins supports secure and adaptive urban simulations. Conclusion This research confirms that emerging technologies are not just complementary tools but foundational enablers for future smart cities. The study identified AI, IoT, Big Data, Blockchain, Cloud Computing, Digital Twins, and advanced communication technologies (5G/6G, Satellite Internet) as the most influential. These technologies support the shift towards efficient governance, sustainable living, and intelligent infrastructure. The impact of each technology varies by domain, yet all contribute to creating cities that are more resilient, adaptive, and responsive to citizen needs. Importantly, no single technology alone can drive the full transformation toward a smart city; rather, an integrated, cross-functional strategy is essential. The study recommends increased investment in ICT infrastructure, development of regulatory frameworks to support innovation, and citizen engagement in smart city initiatives. Urban leaders must focus on fostering collaborations between government, academia, and the private sector to ensure that the deployment of smart technologies is inclusive, secure, and aligned with long-term sustainability goals. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| New Technologies, Future City, Smart City, Impact Assessment | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 292 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 162 |
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