مقایسه شاخصهای SPI، PNPI، RAI و SIAP در تحلیل شرایط خشکسالی هواشناسی حوزه آبخیز زهره-جراحی | ||
| خشک بوم | ||
| دوره 14، شماره 2، مهر 1403، صفحه 145-159 اصل مقاله (1.1 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.29252/aridbiom.2025.22482.2036 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| پیمان باوند1؛ بهزاد متشفع* 1؛ ساره هاشم گلوگردی2 | ||
| 1گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه صنعتی خاتم الانبیاء بهبهان، بهبهان، ایران. | ||
| 2دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| خشکسالی، یک پدیده رایج آب و هواشناسی و یک خطر جهانی فراگیر است. با تغییراقلیم، این احتمال وجود دارد که رویدادهای خشکسالی شدیدتر و مکرر شوند. بنابراین پایش مؤثر خشکسالی حیاتی است. در این مطالعه، پدیده خشکسالی هواشناسی با استفاده از شاخصهای بارش استاندارد شده (SPI)، شاخص درصد از نرمال بارش (PNPI)، شاخص معیار بارش سالانه (SIAP) و شاخص ناهنجاری بارش (RAI) موردبررسی و پایش قرار گرفت. به این منظور از دادههای بارندگی شش ایستگاه بارانسنجی موجود در حوضه، در دوره آماری 25 ساله استفاده شد. بهمنظور بررسی روند خشکسالی هواشناسی براساس شاخص SPI از آزمون ناپارمتریک من-کندال بهره گرفته شد. سرانجام، توزیع مکانی شدیدترین مقادیر خشکسالی هواشناسی در سطح حوضه با استفاده از روش زمینآماری وزندهی معکوس فاصله (IDW) در محیط ArcGIS تهیه گردید. نتایج شاخص SPI حاکی از این است که ایستگاه چرام با کمترین میزان SPI که برابر با 94/3- بود دارای شدیدترین خشکسالی هواشناسی در طول دوره موردبررسی بوده است که مربوط به آبان ماه سال 1387 میباشد. فراوانی وقوع خشکسالی براساس این شاخص، حاکی از آن بود که در همه طبقات خشکسالی اتفاق افتاده است. همچنین روند خشکسالی براساس شاخص SPI، حاکی از تشدید خشکسالی در منطقه بوده و این روند در ایستگاههای سرفاریاب، امامزادهپهلوان، تنگپیرزال و کوشک ضرغامآباد در سطح اطمینان 95 درصد معنیدار است. شاخص PNPI نشانداد که فراوانی طبقه خشکسالی بسیارشدید، در منطقه بیشتر و بالاترین میزان آن مربوط به ایستگاه فشیان برابر با 33/58 درصد بوده است. براساس شاخص RAI نیز ایستگاههای سرفاریاب و امامزادهپهلوان با فراوانی برابر 47/46 درصد، دارای بالاترین فراوانی وقوع خشکسالی هواشناسی با طبقه بسیارشدید در حوزه میباشند. حاصل از شاخص نرمال بارش سالانه (SIAP) بیانگر وقوع خشکسالی در سال آبی 1387-1386 در اغلب ایستگاههای حوضه میباشد. همچنین بیشترین دوره تداوم خشکسالی ایستگاههای منطقه براساس هر سه شاخص 1 ساله بوده است. براساس نتایج بدستآمده از شاخصها، خشکسالی هواشناسی در منطقه رخداده و جهت جلوگیری از اثرات آن در آینده موضوع مدیریت منابع آب در منطقه لازم و ضروری است. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| خشکسالی هواشناسی؛ آزمون من -کندال؛ تغییرات اقلیمی؛ حوزه آبخیز زهره-جراحی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Comparison of SPI, PNPI, RAI and SIAP Indices in Analyzing Meteorological Drought Conditions in the Zohreh-Jarrahi Watershed | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Peyman Bavand1؛ Behzad Moteshaffeh1؛ Sareh Hashem Geloogrdi2 | ||
| 1Faculty of Natural Resources, Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of Technology, Behbahan, Iran | ||
| 2Faculty of Natural Resources and Geoscience, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Drought is a common meteorological phenomenon and a pervasive global hazard. As our climate changes, drought events will likely become more severe and frequent. Effective drought monitoring is therefore critical. In this study, the meteorological drought phenomenon was investigated and monitored using standardized precipitation indices (SPI), Percentage of Normal Precipitation Index (PNPI), Standard Annual Precipitation Index (SIAP), and Precipitation Anomaly Index (RAI). For this purpose, the rainfall data of six rain gauge stations in the basin were used in the statistical period of 25 years. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to investigate the meteorological drought trend based on the SPI index. Finally, the spatial distribution of the most severe meteorological drought values at the basin level was prepared using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) geostatistical method in the ArcGIS environment. The results of the SPI index indicate that the Charam station, with the lowest SPI of -3.94, had the most severe meteorological drought during the study period, which was related to November 2008. The frequency of drought occurrence based on this index indicated that it occurred in all drought classes. The drought trend based on the SPI index indicated an intensification of drought in the region, and this trend was significant at the Sarfaryab, Emamzadeh Pahlevan, Tange Pirzal, and Kooshke Zarghamabad stations at a 95% confidence level. The PNPI index showed that the frequency of the very severe drought class was higher in the region, and the highest rate was related to the Feshiyan station, equal to 58.33%. Based on the RAI index, the Sarfaryab, and Emamzadeh Pahlevan stations, with a frequency of 46.47 percent, had the highest frequency of meteorological drought occurrence with the very severe class in the basin. The results of the Normal Annual Precipitation Index (SIAP) indicate the occurrence of drought in the water year 2007-2008 in most of the basin stations. Also, the longest drought period in the region based on all three indicators was 1 year for all stations. Based on the results, meteorological drought occurred in the region, and to prevent its effects in the future, water resources management is necessary. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Meteorological drought, Mann-Kendall test, Climate change, Zohreh-Jarrahi Watershed | ||
| مراجع | ||
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