اشتغالزایی صنعتی ایران در پی بهرهگیری از ظرفیتهای بلااستفاده صادراتی | ||
| سیاست گذاری اقتصادی | ||
| دوره 17، شماره 33، فروردین 1404، صفحه 329-358 اصل مقاله (678.11 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/epj.2024.20626.2497 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| قهرمان عبدلی* 1؛ محسن مهرآرا2؛ غلامرضا کشاورز حداد3؛ محمد رضا عابدین مقانکی4 | ||
| 1استاد دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، ایران | ||
| 2استاد دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
| 3دانشیار دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران، ایران | ||
| 4دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران (پردیس البرز)، البرز، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| ضرورت رشد اشتغال در ایران بهویژه جهت فائق آمدن بر مشکلات اقتصادی، اجتماعی و قضایی خانوارهای ایرانی ناشی از گسترش معضل بیکاری در کشور، موضوعی بااهمیت برای عموم جامعه بوده و از دغدغههای اصلی سیاستگذاران اقتصادی است. با توجه بدانکه یکی از گروههای مهم اقتصادی به لحاظ اشتغالزایی و مبادلات بینالمللی کالاها، محصولات بخش صنعت است، در این مطالعه تاثیرگذاری بهکارگیری ظرفیتهای بالقوه و بلااستفاده صادرات صنعتی بر رشد اشتغال مورد مطالعه قرار میگیرد. بدین منظور، در این مطالعه، مدل اقتصادسنجی دادههای تابلویی پویا برای بازه زمانی 1381 تا 1399، در سطح حدود 120 گروه فعالیت صنعتی با تلفیق دادههای نیروی کار و تجارت خارجی کشور برآورد میشود. این مطالعه در سطح کدهای چهار رقمی آیسیک نگارش 4 به انجام رسیده است. نتایج نشانگر آن استکه بهکارگیری پتانسیل (ظرفیت) بلااستفاده صادراتی ایران، تاثیری مثبت بر اشتغال صنعتی کشور دارد. هرچند میزان رشد صادرات صنعتی و افزایش اشتغال، در میان صنایع مختلف ایران بهطور مساوی توزیع نشده است. بهمنظور تغییر جهت فعلی تجارت خارجی و بهویژه صادرات کشورکه با سرعت قابل تاملی در حال کاهش و ناپدید شدن است، لذا ضروریست، مجموعه حکمرانی کشور و بهویژه دولت باید زمینههای لازم برای تسهیل تجارت و بهویژه صادرات را بهطور کامل فراهم نماید. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| پانل دیتای پویا؛ تحریم؛ سیاست تجاری؛ سیاست صنعتی؛ کدهای آیسیک | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Industrial job creation by using Iran's untapped export potential | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Ghahraman Abdoli1؛ Mohsen Mehrara2؛ Gholamreza Keshavarz Haddad3؛ Mohammad Reza Abedin Moghanaki4 | ||
| 1Professor of the Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 2Professor of the Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 3Associate Professor of the Faculty of Management and Economics, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 4PhD student in economics, University of Tehran (Alborz campus), Tehran, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Purpose: This research paper aims to examine how changes in Iran's industrial exports, specifically the Untapped Export Potential (UEP), affect the employment level. We analyzed the data from 120 industrial activities in Iran spanning the years 2002 to 2020 and then categorized them according to the four-digit ISIC Rev. and four codes. Previous studies mentioned in the existing literature have primarily focused on the impact of the realized exports on employment. However, this article adopts a different approach by introducing the concept of Untapped Export Potential and exploring its influence on the employment-trade relationship. The UEP concept refers to the potential volume of exports between Iran and its trading partners. Methodology: To account for the autoregressive nature of employment over consecutive years, we employ a dynamic labor demand regression model. In this model, the main control determinants of the outcome of interest are production, wages, research and development (R&D) costs, imports and, particularly, the Untapped Export Potential (UEP). We anticipate that employment will be positively influenced by the lagged employment level, value added of activities, R&D costs, and imports. On the other hand, we expect employment to be negatively affected by wages and the UEP. Findings and discussion: First, we conducted an Im-Pesaran-Shin (IPS) test to check for the presence of unit roots in the panel time series. Once the presence of unit roots was proved, we proceeded to estimate dynamic panel regressions. The estimated parameters exhibited statistical significance, and their signs aligned with the expected theoretical outcomes. The expansion of imports was found to have a positive impact on industrial employment; there was a 0.025% increase observed. Additionally, a one percent increase in value added by industrial activities would lead to a 0.37% increase in employment. Although the effect was smaller, an increase in R&D costs still had a significant impact on industrial employment, with a 0.037% increase observed. On the other hand, an increase in paid wages had a negative effect on labor demand. Specifically, a one-unit increase in wages would result in a 0.15% decrease in employment. Regarding the UEP, the results demonstrated its inverse effects on Iran's industrial employment. On average, each unit increase in the use of UEP corresponded to a 0.004% decrease in industrial employment. However, it is to be noted that the effect on employment was not evenly distributed among industries. Conclusions and policy implications: In light of the declining trend in Iran's exports, it is crucial for policymakers to facilitate international trade, particularly exports. Considering that the use of UEP and an increase in imports have positive effects on the country's industrial employment, expanding foreign trade will not a threat to industrial employment in Iran; rather, it contributes to its improvement. Furthermore, to enhance Iran's position in the global arena, significant political decisions must be made regarding the country's international relations. The calculation of potential export volumes based on the current state of Iran's manufacturing industries does not indicate a favorable situation. Many of these industries heavily rely on oil production and contribute significantly to carbon pollution, which not only worsens the country's climate but also has potential international consequences in the future. Moreover, the continued production of such products with low-quality technology can lead to a decline in the country's overall production capacity. To address these challenges, it is essential for Iran to focus on increasing its industrial production capacity with medium and high technologies. This requires creating conditions to attract foreign direct investment, technology transfer, efficient utilization of skilled labor and new tools, all of which depend on establishing internal peace and security and correcting perceptions of stability among the local population, immigrants, and foreigners. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| dynamic data panel, industrial policy, trade policy, ISIC codes, sanction | ||
| مراجع | ||
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