پهنه‌بندی خطر سیل در مناطق خشک با استفاده از مدل ترکیبی AHP-FUZZY در شهرستان دشتی، جنوب ایران | ||
| خشک بوم | ||
| دوره 14، شماره 1، فروردین 1403، صفحه 47-60 اصل مقاله (2.08 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.29252/aridbiom.2024.21525.2011 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سعید زارعی* 1؛ سعیده کشاورز2 | ||
| 1گروه ژئوفیزیک، دانشکده علوم و فناوری نانو و زیستی، دانشگاه خلیج فارس، بوشهر، ایران | ||
| 2استادیار، گروه علوم زمین، دانشکده علوم و فناوری‌های نوین، دانشگاه تحصیلات تکمیلی صنعتی و فناوری پیشرفته، کرمان، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| سیل به عنوان شایع‌ترین بلای طبیعی در سراسر جهان در سال‌های اخیر در نظر گرفته شده است. تهیه نقشه‌های پتانسیل خطر سیل برای مدیریت و کاهش خطر سیل لازم و ضروری است. تغییرات اقلیمی و تغییر مسیر رودخانه و مسیلها در مناطق خشک سبب گسترش سیلابها شده است. هدف از این پژوهش، ارزیابی و پهنه‌بندی مناطق دارای خطر سیلاب با استفاده از رویکرد ترکیبی استفاده از مدل تحلیل سلسله مراتبی- فازی (AHP-FUZZY) در شهرستان دشتی در استان بوشهر است. پارامترهای استفاده شده در این پژوهش عبارتند از لایه های بارش، ارتفاع از سطح دریا، شیب، تراکم شبکه زهکشی، کاربری اراضی، زمین‌شناسی و خاک که این لایه ها در محیط ARC GIS تهیه و طبقه‌بندی شده‌اند. سپس بر اساس روش AHP در نرم‌افزار AHP SOLVER وزن‌دهی و به کمک مدل فازی، لایه‌ها فازی شده‌اند و سرانجام با تلفیق روش AHP-FUZZY نقشه ارزیابی و پهنه‌بندی خطر سیل به‌دست آمده است. نتایج حاصل از پهنه‌بندی سیلاب نشان می‌دهد که شهرستان دشتی از لحاظ آسیب‌پذیری به پنج طبقه تقسیم می‌شود که ۵/۶ درصد از منطقه در محدوده خطر بسیار بالا و ۹/۲۷ درصد از منطقه در محدوده خطر بالا قرار دارد. نتایج نشان می دهد بتحلیل نقشه های نهایی نشان می دهد که یشترین پتانسیل خطر سیل مربوط به شهرهای خورموج، سنا و شنبه می باشد. تلفیق روش AHP-FUZZY قابلیت بالایی در ارزیابی و پهنه‌بندی خطر سیل دارد لذا آگاهی از پتانسیل سیل‌خیزی منطقه می‌تواند در هنگام رخداد سیلاب در جهت تدوین برنامه های مدیریت سیلاب مؤثر واقع شود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| مخاطرات طبیعی؛ رودخانه؛ مدل فازی؛ استان بوشهر | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Flood hazard zoning in dry areas, using AHP-Fuzzy Model in Dashti region, south Iran | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Saeed Zarei1؛ Saeede Keshavarz2 | ||
| 1Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Nano and Bio Science and Technology, Persian Gulf University, Bushehr, Iran | ||
| 2Assistant Professor, Department of Earth Sciences, Graduate University of Advanced Technology, Kerman, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Floods have been considered the most common natural disaster worldwide in recent years. Flood hazard potential mapping is required for the management and mitigation of flood. Climatic change and the occupation of rivers and drainage have led to floods in arid areas. The objective of this study is to assess and zoning flood risk using the AHP-FUZZY hybrid approach model in the Dashti region of Bushehr Province. In this study, precipitation, elevation, slope, drainage density, land use, geology and soil parameters were used. These parameters have been constructed and classified in the ARC GIS Software; which were weighed according to the AHP method in AHP SOLVER software and the layers were fuzzy using the fuzzy model. Finally, by combining the AHP-FUZZY method, the flood risk assessment and zoning map were obtained.6.5% of the area is in the very high-risk range, and 27.9% is in the high-risk range. Analysis of the final map shows that Khormuj, Sana and Shonbeh are at greater risk of flooding. The combination of the AHP-FUZZY method in previous research has confirmed that this method has great capacity in flood risk assessment and zoning. Therefore, knowing the flood potential of the basin can be effective in formulating crisis management plans when faced with floods. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Natural Hazards, River, Fuzzy Model, Bushehr prvince | ||
| مراجع | ||
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