اثر آستانه ای رانت نفت بر بدهی عمومی در ایران | ||
| سیاست گذاری اقتصادی | ||
| مقاله 7، دوره 15، شماره 30، مهر 1402، صفحه 202-227 اصل مقاله (586.64 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/epj.2024.20483.2475 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| رضا معبودی1؛ یونس نادمی* 2؛ بنفشه عذرتی3 | ||
| 1استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آیتالله العظمی بروجردی، بروجرد، ایران. | ||
| 2دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آیتالله العظمی بروجردی، بروجرد، ایران. | ||
| 3دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد آموزش، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آیتاله العظمی بروجردی، بروجرد، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| سرمایهگذاری درآمدهای نفتی در سرمایه عمومی اثر مثبت بر رشد اقتصادی دارد ولی عدم تخصیص بهینه عواید نفتی اقتصاد را در معرض خطر افزایش بدهی عمومی قرار میدهد که برونرانی سرمایهگذاری بخش خصوصی و کاهش رشد اقتصادی را در پی دارد. با توجه به اهمیت موضوع، در پژوهش حاضر تأثیر آستانهای رانت نفتی بر بدهی عمومی ایران در بازه زمانی 1400-1373 بررسیشده است. یافتهها حاکیاند حد آستانه نسبت رانت نفت به تولید ناخالص داخلی 23/22 درصد است. در هر دو رژیم، رانت نفت تأثیر کاهشی بر بدهی عمومی دارد؛ با این تفاوت که بعد از عبور از حد آستانه، میزان اثرگذاری رانت نفت بر بدهی عمومی به میزان قابلتوجهی کاهش مییابد. وفور منابع نفتی در کشور عامل مهمی است که میتواند از طریق افزایش درآمد، سرمایه و منابع مالی در اختیار دولت را بهبود بخشد و از این طریق توانایی تعدیل سطح بدهی دولت را دارا است. ولی در رژیم بالای نفت، شدت اثرگذاری بهصورت معنیداری کاهش مییابد که نشان میدهد در زمان برخورداری از رانت نفتی بالا، دولتها با اتخاذ سیاستهای هزینهای بلندپروازانه در زیرساختها و پروژههای مختلف نیازمند حمایتهای بودجهای سنگین میشوند. این موضوع باعث میشود که میزان اثرگذاری رانت نفت بر بدهی عمومی در رژیم درآمد بالای نفتی کاهش یابد. بنابراین، در رژیم بالا نفت تداوم استفاده از رانت منابع نفتی ممکن است باعث نفرین منابع شود و نهتنها به گسترش صنایع مرتبط با منابع نفتی منجر نشود، بلکه صنایع مستقل از منابع نفت و توسعه اقتصادی را سرکوب کند؛ در نتیجه چالشهای بزرگتری برای تأمین مالی و بدهی دولت ایجاد کند. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| بدهی عمومی؛ رانت منابع نفتی؛ رشد اقتصادی؛ رویکرد رگرسیون آستانه ای؛ ایران | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Threshold Effect of Oil Rent on Public Debt in Iran | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Reza Maaboudi1؛ Younes Nademi2؛ Banafshe Azraty3 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Borujerd, Iran. | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Borujerd, Iran. | ||
| 3M.A. Student, Department of Economics, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Borujerd, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Purpose: The abundance of natural resources, as an effective limitation on the government's strategies and the market mechanism, affects the government's behavior from various aspects such as the degree of economic openness, corruption, poverty alleviation, prosperity (Papyrakis & Gerlag, 2007; Segal, 2011) and, as a result, the public debts (Ampfo et al., 2021). Natural resources can raise government capital as a driving force. The growth of government capital can increase the quantity of private capital and production through productivity and cost savings. In addition to encouraging more of these dynamic elements, it can ultimately lead to economic development (Agnor, 2013). Conversely, studies such as Haman et al. (2016) and Arias and Restrepo-Echavarria (2016) show that such a perception is not necessarily correct. The country's reliance on the rent of natural resources can lead to an increase in government spending and a decrease in tax revenue, which ultimately means more public debt. Therefore, the investigation of the factors affecting public debts in developing countries, especially Iran, is of particular importance due to the weakness of the tax system and the existence of a stable budget deficit. In Iran, oil rent is one of the substantial and effective factors in public debts. Understanding the influence of oil rent on public debts enables policymakers and planners to increase the efficiency of government policy while reducing the harmful effects of non-optimal allocation of oil revenues. Considering the importance of the subject, the present research examines the impact of oil resource rent on Iran's public debts. Methodology: Investigating the effect of oil rent on public debts was done with the model of Ampfo et al. (2021) and Mamdeli et al. (2021) in which the dependent variable of "ratio of public debts to GDP" is a function of the ratio of "oil rent to GDP", economic growth, and control variables such as inflation, trade openness, and unemployment. The research variables had an annual frequency and were collected in constant 2010 prices. The data source is the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund and covers the period from 1974 to 2021. In order to analyze the effect of oil rent on public debts, the threshold regression approach was used, in which the value of the threshold value, i.e., the ratio of oil revenue to GDP, is calculated by minimizing the sum of the squared errors. Results and discussion: The research model was estimated considering a structural breakpoint and two regimes. The volume of the threshold variable, i.e., the ratio of oil rent to GDP, is 22.23%. The ratio of oil rent to GDP before the threshold is -2.71, and it is -0.644 after crossing the threshold level. In both regimes, oil rent has a negative and significant effect on public debts. In the high oil regime, however, the impact of oil rent on the public debts is less than that in the low oil regime, which is due to the effects of resource curse on the economy. The results of the research on the negative relationship between oil rent and public debt are consistent with the findings of the studies by Sadik-Zada and Gatto (2019), and Mamdeli et al. (2021). Also, Ampfo et al. (2021) and Yang et al. (2023) indicate that oil rents have a negative and significant effect on public debts in the short run. Eskandaripour et al. (2018) show that, with the increase of oil revenues in Iran, the equilibrium level of the government debts is at its lowest level. Therefore, the government can use oil revenues in a favorable way in order to keep down and stabilize the public debts. Economic growth has a non-linear effect on public debt. So, in a low oil regime, economic growth has an increasing and considerable impact on the government debts, but, in a high oil regime, it has a significant and decreasing effect on the public debts. Unemployment rate and trade openness have non-linear effects on public debts; in the low oil regime, they have a decreasing and significant influence on the public debts, but in the high oil regime, they have a positive and significant effect on the government debt. In both oil regimes, inflation has a positive and significant impact on public debts. However, after crossing the threshold level, its intensity decreases. Conclusions and policy implications: The findings show that in Iran's economy, the volume of government debts is decreased with the increase in oil revenues. In a low oil regime, the oil revenues improve the capital and financial resources available to the government by increasing the income, thus providing the ability to adjust the level of the government's debt. In a high oil regime, however, the government needs heavy budget support by adopting ambitious spending policies in various infrastructures and projects. This decreases the effect of oil rent on public debts in the regime of high oil income. Therefore, in the high oil regime, the continued use of oil resource rents may cause a resource curse which not only fails to expand the industries related to oil resources but also suppresses the industries independent of domestic resources and even widespread economic development. As a result, it will create higher challenges for government finances and debts. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Public Debt, Rent of Oil Resources, Economic Growth, Threshold Regression Approach, Iran | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Achua, J. K. Yusuf, M. & Wakdok, S. S. (2022). Nonlinear Public Debt and Resource Rent Nexus in Highly Indebted Resource-Rich Sub-Saharan Economies: Evidence from Nigeria. Resources Policy, 79: 102983. Adeosun, O. A. & Fagbemi, F. (2019). Exploring the Asymmetric Linkage between Commodity Prices and Fiscal Performance in Nigeria. Econometrics and Finance Letter, 6: 134–148. Agénor, P. R. )2013(. Public Capital, Growth and Welfare: Analytical Foundations for Public Policy. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey. Ahmadi, M. & Mahmodzadeh, M. (2018). Government Debt and Economic Growth in Iran: Smooth Transition Regression (STR) Approach. Macroeconomic Research Letter, 13(25): 133-152. (In Persian) Alenoghena, R. O. Oguntade, F. & Amase, J. (2023). The Macroeconomic Determinants of Fiscal Deficit Financing in Nigeria: A Two-Stage Least Squares Approach. International Journal of Humanities Social Science and Management, 3(2): 135-149. Al Jabri, S. Raghavan, M. & Vespignani, J. (2022). Oil Prices and Fiscal Policy in an Oil-Exporter Country: Empirical Evidence from Oman. Energy Economics, 111: 106103. Ampfo, G. M. K. Jinhua, C. Bosah, Ph. C, Ayimadu, E. T. & Senadzo, P. (2021). Nexus between Total Natural Resource Rents and Public Debt in Resource-Rich Countries: A Panel Data Analysis. Resources Policy, 74: 102276. Arias, M. A. & Restrepo-Echavarria, P. (2016). Sovereign Default and Economic Performance in Oil-Producing Economies. Economic Synopses, 20: 1-2. Arman, A. Salahmanesh, A. & Shalyari, F. (2020). Investigating the Threshold Effect of Public Debt on Economic Growth Using Threshold Regression Model: Evidence from Selected Countries. Planning and Budgeting, 25(1): 29-51. (In Persian) Attia Al-Rubaie, Q. L. & Ahmed, A. Sh. (2023). Measuring and Analyzing the Repercussions of Public Debt in Financing the General Budget Deficit for the Iraqi Economy after 2003 Using the (Eviews) Program. Materials Today: Proceedings, 80(3): 3144-3154. Auty, R. M. (1993). Sustaining Development in Mineral Economies: The Resource Curse Thesis. Routledge, London. Coulibaly, Y. Minea, A. & Villieu, P. (2022). How Do Natural Resource-Backed Loans Affect the Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Countries? Empirical Evidence. LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2937, Orleans Economics Laboratory/ Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans, France, http://data.leo-univ-orleans.fr/media/search-works/2937/dr-leo-2022-03.pdf. Enders, W. & Siklos, P. L. (2001). Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment. Business and Economic Statistics, 19(2): 166-176. Eskandaripour, A. Mahmoudinia, D. & Yousefi, A. (2019). Determination of Government Public Debt Equilibrium Path and Its Comparison with the Actual Path of Debt in Iranian Economy within the Endogenous Growth Model. Economics Research, 19(73): 119-146. (In Persian) Elmendorf, D. W. & Gregory Mankiw, N. (1999). Chapter 25 Government debt. Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1: 1615–1669. Forslund, K. Lima, L. & Panizza, U. (2011). The Determinants of the Composition of Public Debt in Developing and Emerging Market Countries. Review of Development Finance, 1(3-4): 207-222. Falahati, A. & Heidarian, M. (2018). Studying Threshold Effects of Government Investment and Public Debt in an Economic Growth Model for Iran Provinces; Using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model (PSTR). Economic Growth and Development Research, 9(33): 41-56. Gurbanov, S. & Thomas Merkel, E. (2012). Natural Resource Revenues and Increasing External Debt: Are These Enemies of Existing and Potential Manufacturing? A Case Study of Kazakhstan. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2239811. Hamann, F. Mendoza, E. G. & Restepo-Echavarria, P. (2016). Commodity Prices and Sovereign Default: A New Perspective on The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect, https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2016/paper_806.pdf. Hansen, B.E. (2000). Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation. Econometrica, 68(3): 575-603. Khan, M. A. Khan, M. A. Ali, K. Popp, J. & Olah, J. (2020). Natural Resource Rent and Finance: The Moderation Role of Institutions. Sustainability, 12(9): 3897. Manzano, O. & Rigobon, R. (2001). Resource Curse or Debt Overhang? National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No. 8390. http://www.nber.org/papers/w8390.pdf. Melina, G. Yang, S. C. & Zanna, L. F. (2016). Debt Sustainability, Public Investment, and Natural Resources in Developing Countries: The DIGNAR Model. Economic Modeling, 52: 630-649. Montazeri Shoorekchali, J. (2019). The Determinants of Government Debt Size in Iran's Economy: New Evidence from an ARDL Approach. Journal of Iranian Economic Issues, 5(2): 105-124. (In Persian). Muhammad, N. I. Olaolu, D. Abu, A. S. & Umar, U. H. (2021). Effect of Public Debt on Inflation Rate in Nigeria. Lafia Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 6(1): 171-186. Papyrakis, E. & Gerlagh, R. (2007). Resource Abundance and Economic Growth in the United States. European Economic Review, 51: 1011-1039. Raveh, O. & Tsur, Y. (2020). Resource Windfalls and Public Debt: A Political Economy Perspective. European Economic Review, 123: 1-22. Sadeghi, S. K. & Tadayon, S. (2022). Investigating the Effect of Public Debt on Economic Growth in Selected Islamic Countries. Islamic Economics and Banking, 10 (37): 45-68. (In Persian). Sadeghi Amroabadi, B. & Hooshmandi, H. (2021). Analyzing the Effects of Income Inequality on Public Debt in OPEC Member States by Threshold Panel. Economic Research and Policies, 29(97): 313-335. (In Persian) Sadik-Zada, E. R. & Gatto, A. (2019). Determinants of the Public Debt and the Role of the Natural Resources: A Cross-Country Analysis, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Working Paper No. 004, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331702613. Salmani, Y. Yavari, K. Sahabi, B. & Asgharpour, H. (2016). The Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Government Debt on Economic Growth in Iran. Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 5(18): 81-107. (In Persian) Sachs, J. D. & Warner, A. M. (1997). Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies. Journal of African Economies, 6(3): 335-376. Tung, L. T. (2020). Can Public Debt Harm Social Development? Evidence from the Asian-Pacific Region. International Studies, 13(2): 48-61. Wang, W. Ning, Z. Shu, Y. Riti, J. S. & Riti, M-K. J. (2023). Natural Resource Rents and Public Debts Nexus in African Resource-Rich and Most Indebted Nations: Issues with Aggregation Bias. Resources Policy, 82: 103409. Zhilaei Aghdam, J. Daghighi Asli, A. Afsharirad, M. Damankeshide, M. & Esmaelzadeh, A. (2020). Threshold Effect of General Government Debt on Economic Growth in Middle East and North Africa Countries (Logistic Smooth Transition Regression Approach in Panel Data). Journal of Econimic Studies and Policies, 6(2): 29-58. (In Persian). | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 685 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 447 |
||