بررسی ارتباط بین عناصر آبوهوایی و مصرف گاز خانگی در استان فارس تحت تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی | ||
| خشک بوم | ||
| دوره 13، شماره 1، اردیبهشت 1402، صفحه 151-162 اصل مقاله (1.29 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.29252/aridbiom.2023.20690.1960 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| رحمان زندی* 1؛ مختار کرمی2؛ یعقوب زنگنه3؛ مریم خسرویان4 | ||
| 1دانشیار گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی و برنامهریزی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران | ||
| 2استادیار آبوهواشناسی، دانشکده جغرافیا و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران | ||
| 3دانشیار برنامهریزی شهری، دانشکده جغرافیا و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران | ||
| 4محقق پسادکتری آبوهواشناسی شهری، دانشکده جغرافیا و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| افزایش روزافزون تقاضای انرژی در برابر کاهش منابع فراگیر انرژی به همراه پیامدهای گرمایش جهانی، اهمیت بررسی کمّی تغییرات نیاز سرمایش، گرمایش کشور را در دهههای گذشته و آینده ضروری میسازد. هدف از پژوهش حاضر بررسی میزان گاز مصرفی در استان فارس و ارتباط آن با دمای هوا است. جهت نیل به این هدف، نخست دادههای دمایی مربوط به دوره (96-1387) از سایت دادة irimo.ir استخراج و با اخذ دادههای مصرفی گاز از ادارة گاز منطقهای استان فارس، همبستگی بین این دو عامل گرفته شد. در ادامه با استفاده از دادههای دمایی آینده از ECMWRF و معادلات رگرسیون حاصله از همبستگیهای به دست آمده بین میزان دما و مصرف گاز طی سالهای گذشته (96-1391) در مراحل قبلی، میزان مصرف گاز برای دورههای 2030-2010، 2060-2030 و 2100-2091، محاسبه و با گاز مصرفی در گذشته مورد مقایسه قرار گرفت. بنابر نتایج بهدست آمده میانگین گاز مصرفی در دوره مشاهداتی بیشتر بوده و طی دوره آینده تحت هر دو سناریو A و B، که شاهد افزایش دما هستیم، مصرف گاز نیز کاهش پیدا کرده است. در ادامه شاخص CPI برای دوره گذشته و همچنین سه دوره یاد شده تحت هر دو سناریو B و A، محاسبه گردید. میانگین نمایه بیکر در سه دوره مورد مطالعه، در سناریو A به ترتیب 97/19، 08/21 و 34/23 و تحت سناریو B 61/19، 62/20 و 33/21 واحد در مقایسه با دوره دیدبانی کاهش یافته که نشاندهنده تمایل به سوی شرایط نامطلوب زیست اقلیمی در استان فارس است. نهایتاً با استفاده از مدل ارتفاعی رقومی (DEM) استان فارس و معادله رگرسیون گاز مصرفی در زمان گذشته، ارتباط بین ارتفاع و مصرف گاز در فصول مختلف بهدست آمد. بنابر نتایج بهدست آمده، بین دما و ارتفاع در همه فصول ارتباط مستقیم وجود داشته و بیشترین میزان مصرف گاز در ارتفاعات استان و مکانهایی که میانگین دمایی پایینتری در طول سال دارند، ثبت شده است. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| عناصر آبوهوایی؛ مصرف گاز؛ استان فارس؛ تغییرات اقلیمی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Measuring the relationship between weather elements and household gas consumption in Fars province, under the influence of climate change | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Rahman Zandi1؛ Mokhtar Karami2؛ Yaghoob Zanganeh3؛ Maryam Khosraviyan4 | ||
| 1Associate Professor, Natural Geography Department, Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, Isfahan University, Isfahan, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran | ||
| 3Assistant Professor, Department of Urban and Rural Geography, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran | ||
| 4Postdoctoral researcher, Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The ever-increasing increase in energy demand against the reduction of comprehensive energy resources along with the consequences of global warming makes it necessary to quantitatively examine the changes in the cooling and heating needs of the country in the past and future decades. In the present research, first, the temperature data related to the period (1387-1386 S.H.) was extracted from the errimoi.ir data site, and the correlation between these two factors was obtained by obtaining the gas consumption data from the regional gas department of Fars province. In the following, by using the future temperature data from ECMWRF and the regression equations obtained from the correlations obtained between the temperature and gas consumption during the previous years (1391-1396 S.H.) in the previous stages, the amount of gas consumption for the periods 2010-2030, 2030-2060 and 2100-2091, was calculated and compared with the gas consumed in the past. According to the obtained results, the average gas consumption was higher in the observation period and during the future period under both scenarios A and B, where we see an increase in temperature, gas consumption has also decreased. In the following, the CPI index was calculated for the last period as well as the three mentioned periods under both scenarios B and A. The average Baker index in the three studied periods, in scenario A, 19.97, 21.08, and 23.34, respectively, and under scenario B, 19.61, 20.62, and 21.33 units decreased compared to the monitoring period, which shows It is a tendency towards unfavorable bio-climatic conditions in Fars province. Finally, by using the digital elevation model (DEM) of Fars province and the regression equation of gas consumption in the past, the relationship between altitude and gas consumption in different seasons was obtained. According to the results, there is a direct relationship between temperature and altitude in all seasons, and the highest amount of gas consumption has been recorded in the highlands of the province and places that have a lower average temperature throughout the year. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Climate elements, Gas consumption, Fars province, Climate changes | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 433 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 260 |
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