ارزیابی اثرات خشکسالی (خشکسالی هواشناسی) بر توسعه روستایی در روستاهای شهرستان نیمروز | ||
| کاوش های جغرافیایی مناطق بیابانی | ||
| مقاله 10، دوره 8، شماره 2، اسفند 1399، صفحه 247-266 اصل مقاله (768.54 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سیروس قنبری1؛ محسن شایان* 2؛ سیدیونس یوسفی پور3 | ||
| 1استادیار جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران | ||
| 2دانشجوی دکتری برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران | ||
| 3کارشناسی ارشد برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| مخاطرات طبیعی یک چالش عمده در نواحی روستایی است و کنترل آن در روستا از اهمیت زیادی برخوردار است. یکی از مخاطرات طبیعی که اثرات زیانباری بر جوامع روستایی دارد، خشکسالی است. هدف از این پژوهش، ارزیابی اثرات خشکسالی بر توسعه روستایی در روستاهای شهرستان نیمروز است. جامعه آماری تحقیق را روستاهای شهرستان نیمروز تشکیل داده است که به دلیل زیادی روستاها، 20 درصد از روستاهای شهرستان معادل با 15 روستا به صورت تصادفی انتخاب شده است که جمعیت این روستاها بر اساس سرشماری عمومی نفوس و مسکن سال 1395 برابر با 1890 خانوار بوده و با استفاده از فرمول کوکران تعداد 320 نفر به عنوان نمونه انتخاب شده است. برای تجزیه و تحلیل دادهها از آزمون تی تکنمونهای و تحلیل رگرسیون چندمتغیره استفاده شده است. نتایج آزمون تی تکنمونهای نشان داد که وضعیت بعد اقتصادی با میانگین 575/2، بعد اجتماعی- فرهنگی با میانگین 677/2 و بعد زیستمحیطی با میانگین 529/2 در وضعیت نامطلوب قرار دارند که نشاندهنده تاثیر زیاد این ابعاد از خشکسالی در روستاها است. جهت بررسی اثرات خشکسالی بر توسعه پایدار روستایی از آزمون رگرسیون چند متغیره استفاده شده است. نتایج آزمون نشان داد که خشکسالی بیشترین تاثیر را با مقدار ضریب بتای 376/0 بر بعد اقتصادی داشته است. همچنین، اثرات خشکسالی بر بعد زیستمحیطی با مقدار ضریب بتای 254/0 و بعد اجتماعی- فرهنگی با ضریب بتای 187/0 چشمگیر بوده است. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| مخاطرات؛ توسعه؛ توسعه پایدار روستایی؛ خشکسالی؛ شهرستان نیمروز | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Assessing the effects of drought (meteorological drought) on the rural development in the villages of Nimroz County | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Sirus Ghanbari1؛ Mohsen Shayan2؛ Younes Usefipoor3 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor and Faculty Member of Geography and Rural Planning, Sistan and Baluchestan University, Zahedan, Iran | ||
| 2Ph.D. Student of Rural Planning, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran | ||
| 3M.A of Rural Planning, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Introduction: The existence of various hazards in rural communities can be considered as a main obstacle in the process of sustainable development in economic, social and civil domains. The greater the risk, the more problematic the national development programs will be. The purpose of development is to improve the quality of life for everyone. Therefore, the effort to achieve development must be such that the majority of people benefit from it. Development should meet the needs primarily by eradicating poverty. Nowadays, a major concern, especially in developing countries, is to reach an acceptable level of development in various dimensions. Meanwhile, rural development is one of the primary and important foundations of the national development of any country. This is because villages still hold a large part of the population and play a significant role to ensure food security and production. Rural development should, therefore, be part of the national development plan, focusing on solving the problems of the rural community and somehow trying to eliminate deprivation and reduce poverty in these areas. Methodology: The present study is applied in nature. The research method is descriptive-analytical, and the data are provided through library and field sources. In the research process, first, the theoretical foundations of environmental hazards and the corresponding records were studied. Then, fourteen items and four factors including readiness, reaction, reduction and recovery were determined. The statistical population of the study consisted of the villages in Nimroz County. Due to the large number of villages there, 20% of them were selected, which included 15 villages with 1890 households. Using the Cochran's formula, a sample size of 320 was selected. The validity of the questionnaire was examined by professors and experts. For this purpose, after compilation, it was provided to experts, specialists and professors. Their opinions were collected, and the necessary corrections were made. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used to determine the reliability of the study. The alpha value was 0.72, which indicated that the number was desirable. It was also shown that the items designed to measure the indicators were internally correlated. To analyze the data, one-way sample test and multivariate regression analysis were used. Results and Discussion: In this study, 67% of the respondents were male and 33% were female. Also, 59% of the respondents were married and 41% were single. Farmers made up the largest occupational group with a 48% proportion, while employees comprised 14% of the sample. The largest age group with a 33% proportion related to the people of 40 to 50 years of age, and the smallest was the age group of over 60 years. In order to investigate the dimensions of sustainable development in the villages of Nimroz County, a one-sample t-test was used. In this test, according to the range of five Likert options, 3 was considered as the desired average. If the mean obtained was less than the desired average, the effects of drought on the studied item were considered negative and significant. However, if the mean obtained was greater than or equal to the average, the drought would be considered with no or negligible effects. Conclusion: The results of the study showed that the effects of drought on the sustainable development of villages in Nimroz County have been significant. These adverse effects include the reduction of the income from agricultural production and horticultural products, reduction of farming yields and gardening yields, increase of the price of farming crops and the costs of farming production, increase of non-agricultural incomes, reduced capital rural household investments, decrease of the economic value of rural property, decrease in non-agricultural job opportunities, decrease of investment incentives in agriculture, increase in natural risks and investment risks, increased debt to banks and government agencies, decrease of supply production inputs, increase of non-agricultural job opportunities, change of production and agricultural systems, destruction of springs and drying of wells, drastic reduction of groundwater and surface water resources, increase of pests and diseases in gardens, decline of water quality, increased temperature, increased water requirement of orchards, reduced diversity of rangeland forage, soil degradation and erosion, reduction of rangeland production and medicinal herbs, loss of wildlife habitats in the region, increase of invasive plants in rangelands, less willingness of villagers for agricultural activities, increase of rural migration and social tensions, reduced local participation and motivation of assistance among the villagers, reduced equality and justice in the distribution of funds and facilities, weakening of the beliefs and customs of the villagers, increase of psychological problems and rise of false jobs in the studied villages. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Risks, Development, Sustainable rural development, Drought, Nimroz County | ||
| مراجع | ||
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