ارزیابی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر تغییرپذیری بارش و دما (مطالعه موردی: ایستگاههای کاشان و خوروبیابانک) | ||
| خشک بوم | ||
| مقاله 7، دوره 9، شماره 1، شهریور 1398، صفحه 81-99 اصل مقاله (1.31 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.29252/aridbiom.2019.1545 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مریم رضائی1؛ هدی قاسمیه* 2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان | ||
| 2دانشیار، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان | ||
| چکیده | ||
| مدلهای گردش عمومی، توسط آژانسهای اقلیمی بهمنظور پیشبینی تغییرات اقلیمی آینده، بهکار گرفته میشوند. خروجی مدلهای گردش عمومی بهعنوان رابط محلی، قدرت تفکیک فضائی بزرگتری از متغیرهای شبیهسازی شده دارند. در پژوهش حاضر، مدل ریزمقیاس نمائی آماری SDSM، به منظور تخمین تغییرپذیری بارش و دما در ایستگاههای سینوپتیک کاشان و خور و بیابانک در استان اصفهان براساس سناریوی تغییراقلیم ریزمقیاس شده از مدل HadCM3، مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. برای این منظور ابتدا تغییرات میانگین دما و بارش دوره پایه تحت سناریوی A2 مدل HadCM3، با استفاده از دادههای بلندمدت روزانه ایستگاههای مذکور، بررسی گردید، سپس تخمین و پیشبینی دورههای آتی (2039-2010)، (2069-2040) و (2099-2070) صورت گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که در هر دو ایستگاه، مقادیر دما و بارش شبیهسازی شده تطابق و سازگاری نزدیکی با مقادیر مشاهداتی داشتند، ولی عملکرد فرآیند ریزمقیاس نمایی در پیشبینی بارش در دورههای واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی، نسبت به پیشبینی دما پایینتر بود. نتایج نشان داد دمای میانگین در ایستگاه کاشان، 42/0، 08/1 و 16/2 درجه سانتیگراد در دورههای (2039-2010)، (2069-2040) و (2099-2070) میلادی نسبت به دوره پایه (2001-1987)، افزایش مییابد. همچنین نتایج، کاهش دمای میانگین را در ماههای ژانویه، فوریه، مارس، سپتامبر و دسامبر و افزایش در سایر ماهها را نشان داد. نتایج در ایستگاه خور و بیابانک نیز نشان داد که درجه حرارت بهطور مداوم در منطقه، افزایش خواهد یافت. همچنین متوسط بارش سالانه، تحت سناریو A2 ، 38/1 میلیمتر در طول دوره پیشبینی (2099-2070) در مقایسه با دوره مشاهداتی افزایش مییابد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| تغییر اقلیم؛ ریزمقیاس نمایی آماری؛ سناریو A2؛ NCEP؛ مدل SDSM و ایران | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Assessing the impact of climate change on rainfall and temperature variability (Case Study: Kashan and Khur and Biabank Stations) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| M. Rezaei1؛ H. Ghasemieh2 | ||
| 1Ph.D. student in Watershed Management Engineering and Science, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| General circulation models (GCMs) have been used to predict future climate change by climate agencies. GCMs outputs as local interfaces have larger spatial resolution than the simulated variables. In the present study, the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was applied to estimate the variability of rainfall and temperature in Kashan and Khur and Biabank synoptic stations in Isfahan Province, based on climate change scenario downscaled from HadCM3 Model. For this reason, firstly, the variation of mean temperature and rainfall for base period was investigated under A2 scenario of HadCM3 model using the daily long-term data from the stations.The estimation and prediction of future periods (2039-2010), (2069-2040) and (2099-2070) was then carried out. The results showed that in both stations, simulated temperature and rainfall values had a close consistence with observed values, but the performance of downscaling process in rainfall prediction was less than temperature during calibration and validation periods. Results showed that for Kashan station the mean temperature will change by 0.42, 1.08 and 2.16◦C during (2010-2039), (2040-2069) and (2070-2099) for A2 scenario as compared to the baseline period (1987-1987). The results also showed a decrease in average temperatures in January, February, March, September and December, and an increase in other months. The results of Khur and Biabank station also showed that temperature will continuously increase in the region. Furthermore, the average annual rainfall increases 1.38 mm under scenario A2 during the prediction period (2070-2099) compared to the observation period. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Climate Change, Statistical Downscaling, A2 Scenario, NCEP, SDSM Model, Iran | ||
| مراجع | ||
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