تحلیل فضایی و بررسی روابط الگوهای پیوند از دور با خشکسالی‌های ایران مرکزی | ||
| خشک بوم | ||
| مقاله 5، دوره 7، شماره 1، خرداد 1396، صفحه 51-65 اصل مقاله (1.31 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.29252/aridbiom.7.1.51 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مهران فاطمی* 1؛ کمال امیدوار2؛ احمد مزیدی3؛ ابراهیم مسگری4؛ حمیده دهقان5 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری مخاطرات طبیعی، دانشگاه یزد | ||
| 2استاد اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه یزد | ||
| 3دانشیار اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه یزد | ||
| 4دانشجوی دکتری اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان | ||
| 5کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیای طبیعی، اقلیم شناسی در برنامه ریزی محیطی، دانشگاه یزد | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در این پژوهش با تکیه بر رویکرد محیطی به گردشی، دوره‌های خشکسالی در بازه زمانی 22 ساله (2013 - 1992) در سطح 21 ایستگاه همدید استان‌های کرمان، یزد و اصفهان با استفاده از نمایه SPI در مقیاس سالانه محاسبه گردید. داده‌های الگوهای ارتباط از دور استخراج و بر اساس روش‌ها و مدل همبستگی و رگرسیون چند متغیره ارتباط بین خشکسالی‌های عمده ی منطقه و این الگوها بررسی شد. بر اساس نتایج، در مجموع سالانه حدود 42/37 درصد تغییرات شاخص خشکسالی SPI استان اصفهان و 09/51 درصد تغییرات شاخص خشکسالی SPI استان کرمان و 17/42 درصد تغییرات شاخص خشکسالی SPI استان یزد به وسیله الگوها تبیین می‌گردد. در پایان، الگوهای چندمتغیره اسکاندیناوی (SCA) در استان اصفهان و الگوی اطلس شرقی (EA) در استان کرمان و الگوی حاره ای جنوب اقیانوس اطلس (TSA) در استان یزد به عنوان مؤثرترین الگوها تغییرات SPI سالانه را در ایران مرکزی توجیه می‌نمایند. واژگان کلیدی: پیوند از دور؛ شاخص استاندارد بارش؛ کریجینگ؛ مدل‌های رگرسیون؛ ایران | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| پیوند از دور؛ شاخص استاندارد بارش؛ کریجینگ؛ مدل‌های رگرسیون؛ ایران | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Spatial analysis and study of Tele-connection patterns of drought in central Iran | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| M. Fatemi1؛ K. Omidvar2؛ A. Mazidi3؛ E. Mesghari4؛ H. Dehghan5 | ||
| 1Ph. D Student Climatology in Yazd University | ||
| 2Professor Climatology, Yazd University | ||
| 3Associate Professor Climatology, Yazd University | ||
| 4Ph. D Student Climatology, Sistan & Baluchestan | ||
| 5M.S. Climatology in Yazd University | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In This research, considering peripheral circulation approach, drought periods during the 22years (2013-1992) in 21 synoptic stations located in Kerman, Yazd and Isfahan provinces, were calculated using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) annually. Tele-connection pattern data extracted from NCEP|NCAR site and were investigated of relationship between major droughts in the region and Tele-connection patterns based on correlation and multivariate regression model. Totally, about 37.42% of the changes Drought Index to SPI in Isfahan and around 51.09 % SPI changes in Kerman and 42.17 % SPI changes in Yazd are exhibited by patterns. Scandinavia Pattern (SCA) in Esfahan and East Atlantic Pattern (EA) in Kerman and Tropical Southern Atlantic (TSA) in Yazd, as the most effective pattern of annual SPI changes, were exhibited in Central Iran. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Tele-connection, Standardized Precipitation Index, Kriging, Regression Models, Iran | ||
| مراجع | ||
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