بررسی نقش عوامل توپوگرافی در پیشبینی مکانی گونههای گیاهی با استفاده از رگرسیون لجستیک (مطالعه موردی: جنگل باغ شادی، هرات، یزد) | ||
| خشک بوم | ||
| مقاله 1، دوره 7، شماره 1، خرداد 1396، صفحه 1-11 اصل مقاله (554.46 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.29252/aridbiom.7.1.1 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مهین شجاعی1؛ بهمن کیانی* 2؛ احد ستوده3؛ حمیدرضا عظیم زاده4 | ||
| 1دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد جنگلداری، دانشگاه یزد | ||
| 2استادیار گروه جنگلداری، دانشگاه یزد | ||
| 3استادیار گروه محیط زیست، دانشگاه یزد | ||
| 4دانشیار گروه محیط زیست، دانشگاه یزد | ||
| چکیده | ||
| به منظور بررسی رابطه متغیرهای شیب، جهت و ارتفاع در پیشبینی مکانی گونههای درختی و درختچ های در جنگل‌های خشک جنوب استان یزد، تعداد 125 قطعه نمونه به صورت تصادفی بلوکی در پنج زیرحوضه منطقه مورد مطالعه برداشت شد. ضمن ثبت متغیرهای توپوگرافی، حضور یا عدم حضور گونه های مختلف به همراه فراوانی آنها بررسی شد. تحلیل رگرسیون لجستیک در مورد داده ها انجام و در مواردی که مدل معنی دار بود، معادله مناسب معرفی گردید. بر اساس احتمالات به دست آمده از رگرسیون لجستیک، نقشه توزیع مکانی برای گونههای مختلف ترسیم و با مشاهدات میدانی مقایسه گردید. برای بررسی صحت نقشهها از 20 درصد دادهها که به همین منظور کنار گذاشته شده بودند استفاده شد. بر این اساس، صحت برای گونه های مورد بررسی متفاوت بوده و در بازه 90-85 درصد به دست آمد. در آخر روابط میان متغیرهای توپوگرافی و حضور گونه ها تجزیه و تحلیل شد. نتایج نشان داد که ارتفاع از سطح دریا مهمترین عامل در پیش بینی مکانی گونه های گیاهی در منطقه است و بین 16 تا 46 درصد تغییرات حضور گونه ها را پیشبینی می کند، هرچند شیب و جهت برای حضور در مدل ها مناسب نبودند. باتوجه به آستانه های مشخص شده، گونه های کیکم و ارژن برای کاشت در ارتفاعات بالاتر و گونه تنگرس برای کاشت در ارتفاعات پایین منطقه میتوانند مدنظر قرار گیرند. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| ایران- تورانی؛ پیشبینی؛ توزیع مکانی؛ توپوگرافی؛ نمونه برداری | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Investigating the role of topographic factors on spatial distribution of plant species using logistic regression (Case study: Baghe-Shadi forest, Harat, Yazd) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| M. Shojaee1؛ B. Kiani2؛ A. Setoodeh3؛ H.R. Azimzadeh4 | ||
| 1MSc Graduated of Forestry, Yazd University | ||
| 2Assistant Professor, Department of Forestry, Yazd University | ||
| 3Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Sciences, Yazd University | ||
| 4Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Sciences, Yazd University | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| To investigate relation of slope, aspect and elevation in predicting spatial distribution of tree and shrub species in arid forests of south Yazd, 125 sampling plots were selected in randomized block pattern in five sub-district of study area. In addition to topographic factors, presence of plant species and their frequency were measured and recorded. Logistic regression was conducted and in the case of significance, suitable model was provided. Distribution map of species was drawn according to probabilities derived from logistic regression analysis. To determine accuracy of maps we used 20 percent of primary data. According to these data the rate of accuracy was in range of 90-75 percent. Finally relations between topographic factors and presence of species were interpreted. Results found that elevation is the most important factor for predicting spatial distribution of plant species in study area and predicts from 16 to 46 percents of variations in presence. But slope and aspect were not suitable to be included in the models. According to thresholds determined in the results it can be said that Acer cinerascens and Amygdalus eleagnifolia can be regarded for planting in higher elevations but Amygdalus lycioides is suitable for planting in lower elevations. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Iran-Touran, prediction, Sampling, Spatial Distribution, Topography | ||
| مراجع | ||
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